Honduras Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Tegucigalpa, San Pedro Sula, La Ceiba, El Progreso, and Choloma
Summary
Honduras recorded its hottest July since records began in 1940, driven by rapid tropical warming and a moderate El Niño forecast to peak at Very Strong in Sep-Nov. Exceptional heat combined with widespread rainfall deficits to severely stress agriculture across the Central American Dry Corridor. The relentless heat builds on a sequence of record-breaking tropical months, with dry conditions expected to persist into autumn.
This month in numbers
July 2026 delivered an average temperature of 25.49°C, standing 1.9°C above the 1961–1990 baseline and making it the warmest iteration of the month in 87 years of record-keeping. The record-setting period pushed the May–July 2026 average to 26.17°C, an anomaly of +2.0°C. That three-month span now stands as the 2nd hottest May–July period on record, surpassed only by the same period in 2024.
What changed
The persistent warmth reflects a broader surge in global tropical temperatures, with the global land average for May–July 2026 also ranking as the 2nd warmest on record at 1.5°C above baseline. For Honduras, elevated temperatures coincided with cumulative rainfall deficits during the primary wet season. While global land temperatures in July ranked 3rd warmest overall, Central America experienced intensified thermal pressure that exacerbated soil dryness across subsistence farming regions.
What’s driving change?
The heat across Honduras is tightly linked to ENSO conditions tracked at ENSO, as Pacific sea-surface temperatures maintained a moderate El Niño. This climate driver typically triggers a across Central America, delaying seasonal rains and accelerating evapotranspiration. Because waters, interior agricultural areas experienced heightened daytime heat, worsening drought conditions and crop stress throughout the region.
Looking ahead
Seasonal forecasts indicate a 100% probability that El Niño conditions will persist through late 2026, maintaining a strong risk of hotter and drier conditions across Central America over the coming months.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Honduras
Köppen Am · TropicalHonduras has a tropical climate (Köppen Am: Tropical monsoon), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. May is typically the warmest month, averaging 26.1°C, while January is the coldest at 22.2°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1537mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Honduras
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Honduras
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Honduras
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Honduras
Latest month is provisional and may be revised by the data provider in the next update cycle.
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Honduras
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Wet / dry seasonsKöppen Am · TropicalHonduras doesn't have a warm/cold cycle - its monthly temperature range is only 3.6°C across the year - but it does have a strong wet/dry cycle (the wettest month gets 5× as much rain as the driest). So we track how the wet season has shifted instead.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Jul (-80 mm, -35%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Honduras
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Honduras changing?
Honduras is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Honduras?
Honduras has a tropical climate (Köppen Am: Tropical monsoon), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. May is typically the warmest month, averaging 26.1°C, while January is the coldest at 22.2°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1537mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Honduras come from?
Climate data for Honduras comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Honduras climate data cover?
The Honduras climate profile covers Tegucigalpa, San Pedro Sula, La Ceiba, El Progreso and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Honduras
How often is the Honduras climate update refreshed?
The Honduras climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Honduras climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Honduras climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.