Guatemala Climate – June 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Guatemala City, Mixco, Villa Nueva, Quetzaltenango, and Escuintla
This month in numbers
Guatemala experienced its 8th warmest June on record, with an average temperature of 24.65°C, marking an anomaly of +1.4°C compared to the 1961–1990 baseline. The April–June 2026 period also ranked as the 8th warmest on record, with an anomaly of +1.6°C. Globally, June 2026 was the 3rd warmest on record for land temperatures, with an anomaly of +1°C, while the April–June period was the 2nd warmest globally.
What changed
Guatemala's consistently warm temperatures this month and over the past three months align with a broader warming trend. The country's average temperature for 2025 was 24.23°C, making it the warmest year on record. This trend is part of a long-term increase of +1.69°C compared to the 1961–1990 baseline. The ongoing weak El Niño conditions are a significant factor, typically leading to warmer and drier conditions in Mexico and Central America during the June-November period, increasing drought risk, especially in the Central American Dry Corridor.
What’s driving change?
The primary driver of the current warming and drier conditions in Guatemala is the ongoing El Niño, which is currently in a weak phase but is forecast to strengthen significantly. El Niño typically leads to reduced rainfall and higher temperatures in Guatemala, particularly affecting the Pacific side and the eastern Dry Corridor. This can result in an extended and intensified canícula, the mid-season dry spell during the rainy season, which can impact agricultural cycles and water availability. Additionally, Guatemala has experienced heavy rainfall and associated flooding and landslides in June, linked to Tropical Storm Cristina.
Looking ahead
The forecast indicates a 100% probability of El Niño conditions persisting and strengthening through the end of 2026, suggesting a continued risk of warmer and drier conditions, particularly in the Central American Dry Corridor, with potential implications for agriculture and water resources.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Guatemala
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (rainfall: World Bank CCKP / CRU TS 4.08). Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Guatemala – Monthly Temperature – All Years
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (rainfall: World Bank CCKP / CRU TS 4.08). Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Records – Guatemala
Our World in Data / NOAA - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Wet / dry seasonsKöppen Am · TropicalGuatemala doesn't have a warm/cold cycle - its monthly temperature range is only 4.2°C across the year - but it does have a strong wet/dry cycle (the wettest month gets 7× as much rain as the driest). So we track how the wet season has shifted instead.
Monthly rainfall climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Jul (-70 mm, -23%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (rainfall: World Bank CCKP / CRU TS 4.08). Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Rainfall & Precipitation
Rainfall & Rain Days – Totals
Headline: anomaly vs the 1961–1990 mean. Small figure: the actual value. Rank: position in the full record (1st = highest ever). Record: highest (or lowest) value on record with its year.
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
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Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Guatemala
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Guatemala changing?
Guatemala is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Guatemala come from?
Climate data for Guatemala comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Guatemala climate data cover?
The Guatemala climate profile covers Guatemala City, Mixco, Villa Nueva, Quetzaltenango and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Guatemala
How often is the Guatemala climate update refreshed?
The Guatemala climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.