England SW & South Wales Climate
City Coverage: Bristol, Exeter, Plymouth, Bath, Cardiff, Swansea, Newport, and Bournemouth
This month in numbers
England SW & South Wales experienced its warmest May on record, with a mean temperature of 13.3°C, an anomaly of +2.8°C compared to the 1961–1990 baseline. This marks the 1st warmest May in 127 years of records. The spring season (March–May 2026) was also exceptionally warm, ranking as the 1st warmest on record with a mean temperature of 10.53°C, an anomaly of +2.7°C. Furthermore, the region saw significantly fewer frost days this spring, with only 2 days recorded, making it the 2nd fewest frost days in 96 years of records. Sunshine for the spring was also notable, ranking as the 7th sunniest on record with 573 hours, an increase of 115 hours above the baseline.
What changed
The past three months have seen a pronounced warming trend in England SW & South Wales, with both May and the March-May period setting new temperature records. This regional warming is significantly higher than the national picture, as the UK as a whole recorded its third warmest spring on record. England and Wales both experienced their warmest spring on record. The region's mean temperature anomaly of +2.66°C for the three-month period places it 54th globally among 234 regions, highlighting a widespread warming trend.
What’s driving change?
A significant late-May heatwave contributed to the record-breaking temperatures, with Wales breaking its May temperature record on two consecutive days, reaching 32.3°C in Cardiff's Bute Park. This heatwave was caused by high pressure, sinking air, clear skies, and strong sunshine, allowing heat to build across England and Wales. The broader warming trend is consistent with the long-term trend of +1.35°C above the 1961–1990 baseline for England SW & South Wales. The developing El Niño, with an 82% chance of developing by May-July and a 98% chance by August-October, is expected to bring above-average temperatures globally, and while its direct influence on the British climate is not always noticeable, it can contribute to warmer conditions.
Looking ahead
The NOAA CPC forecast indicates a very high probability of El Niño conditions continuing and strengthening through the summer and into autumn, with a 98% chance of El Niño by August-October. This could lead to above-average temperatures globally for June to August.
Sources:
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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Data Sources
Data Sources for England SW & South Wales
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in England SW & South Wales changing?
England SW & South Wales is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for England SW & South Wales come from?
Climate data for England SW & South Wales comes from the UK Met Office HadUK-Grid (temperature, rainfall, sunshine, air frost), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the England SW & South Wales climate data cover?
The England SW & South Wales climate profile covers Bristol, Exeter, Plymouth, Bath and surrounding areas. South-west England and south Wales climate data
How often is the England SW & South Wales climate update refreshed?
The England SW & South Wales climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.