England SW & South Wales Climate – July 2026 Update
City Coverage: Bristol, Exeter, Plymouth, Bath, Cardiff, Swansea, Newport, and Bournemouth
Summary
England SW & South Wales experienced a historic month of compound climate extremes, shattering all-time records for high temperatures, total sunshine, and extreme dryness. An unprecedented lack of rainfall combined with intense heat led environmental authorities to declare official drought status across Wales and the southwest of England. The relentless conditions severely depleted reservoirs and dried up river flows across the region, while heatwave alerts remained active for weeks. Temperatures are expected to ease somewhat moving into late summer.
This month in numbers
The region logged its warmest July in 127 years of observational records, with a mean temperature of 19.1°C that sat 3.9°C above the 1961-1990 baseline. Sunshine smashed all-time records at 339 hours, which was 146 hours above normal and ranked 1st in 117 years of tracking. Rainfall almost entirely vanished, registering just 5.2 mm across the region, which sat 65 mm below average and ranked 127th out of 127 years on record with merely 2 precipitation days. The broader May-July 2026 seasonal window was equally exceptional, posting a mean temperature of 16.3°C (+3.3°C anomaly) to rank 1st on record, alongside 754 hours of sunshine, which ranked 4th.
What changed
The extraordinary heat placed England SW & South Wales near the top of international climate tracking, ranking 9th out of 232 global regions for 1-month temperature anomaly and 13th for the 3-month period. Local temperatures ran well ahead of the wider national picture, as the UK-wide July anomaly stood at +2.9°C compared to the regional +3.9°C boost. This record-breaking spell continues a prolonged trajectory of elevated warmth; 2025 was the 2nd warmest year on record at 10.98°C, trailing only 2023, while the region's long-term baseline has now warmed by 1.35°C.
What’s driving change?
The persistent spell of extreme heat and suppressed rainfall was driven primarily by atmospheric high-pressure blocking patterns, known as , which trapped warm air over southern Britain while directed rain-bearing Atlantic weather systems far to the north. Globally, a moderate El Niño remains active with a Relative Niño Index anomaly of +0.98°C, as tracked on our live page at ENSO. While ENSO influence over European summer weather remains historically variable, background atmospheric drivers and land warming continue to compound local heat events.
Looking ahead
Seasonal climate models project that the current moderate El Niño is forecast to peak at Very Strong during Sep-Nov with a 93% probability, potentially nudging European weather patterns as the region transitions into autumn.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – UKUnited Kingdom
Source: Met Office UK Regional & National series (Tmean, Precipitation, Sunshine, Air Frost) © Crown copyright, plus GPCC (Snow, water-equivalent). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – England SW & South Wales
Köppen Cfb · TemperateEngland SW & South Wales has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfb: Oceanic / temperate), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 16.5°C, while January is the coldest at 5.1°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1317mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – England SW & South Wales
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Heatwave Days – England SW & South Wales
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – England SW & South Wales
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Monthly Temperature – England SW & South Wales
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Records – England SW & South Wales
Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Cfb · TemperateHow spring and autumn have shifted in England SW & South Wales. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (9.2°C, from 1900–1929); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 10.7°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Jun (+1.9°C).
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for England SW & South Wales
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
UK Tmean / Tmax / Tmin, rainfall, rain-days, sunshine and air-frost series. © Crown copyright.
Warm Spell Duration Index: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature, ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in England SW & South Wales changing?
England SW & South Wales is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in England SW & South Wales?
England SW & South Wales has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfb: Oceanic / temperate), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 16.5°C, while January is the coldest at 5.1°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1317mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Where does the climate data for England SW & South Wales come from?
Climate data for England SW & South Wales comes from the UK Met Office HadUK-Grid (temperature, rainfall, sunshine, air frost), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the England SW & South Wales climate data cover?
The England SW & South Wales climate profile covers Bristol, Exeter, Plymouth, Bath and surrounding areas. South-west England and south Wales climate data
How often is the England SW & South Wales climate update refreshed?
The England SW & South Wales climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the England SW & South Wales climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the England SW & South Wales climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.