England NW & North Wales Climate – July 2026 Update
City Coverage: Manchester, Liverpool, Preston, Blackpool, Chester, Bangor, and Wrexham
Summary
England NW & North Wales has just experienced its warmest May to July on record, with mean temperatures averaging 15.03°C, alongside the driest July in 127 years of observational history. Unusually delivered exceptional sunshine and cut monthly rainfall to a fraction of normal levels, pushing rivers down and prompting water authorities to declare prolonged dry weather status across North West catchments. Globally, the month coincided with a moderate El Niño forecast to peak at Very Strong in Oct-Dec, while warmer than average conditions are expected to persist across the region in the coming weeks.
This month in numbers
The May to July period was the warmest 3-month spell since records began in 1900, averaging 15.03°C (2.7°C above the 1961-1990 baseline). For July 2026 specifically, the mean temperature reached 17.3°C (2.9°C above average), marking the 3rd warmest such month on record, with daily maximum temperatures averaging 22.3°C. It was also the driest July on record, receiving just 20.5 mm of precipitation - a massive 63.9 mm deficit compared to normal, meaning gardeners and farmers saw almost no measurable rain across 26 days of the month. Sunshine totalled 266.6 hours, making it the 4th sunniest July on record. This follows 2025, which was the 2nd warmest year on record for the region at 10.08°C, amidst an ongoing long-term warming trend of +1.32°C.
What changed
The remarkable three-month period from May to July set an all-time regional temperature record while delivering 650 hours of sunshine, ranking as the 6th sunniest such seasonal stretch on record. Across the United Kingdom, July mean temperatures averaged 17.47°C (2.9°C above average), placing the region's warmth in lockstep with the national picture. While parts of southern England suffered their driest month ever recorded, England NW & North Wales similarly endured an acute dry spell that depleted soil moisture and reduced river flows across major catchments.
What’s driving change?
The persistent dry heat was steered by jet stream shifts that held high-pressure systems firm over northern Europe, blocking standard Atlantic weather fronts. As ground conditions dried out, further exacerbated local heating, reinforcing the regional reality that . On a global scale, an intensifying moderate El Niño in the Pacific - tracked live at ENSO - continues to evolve, though its direct teleconnection to northern European summer weather remains historically weak and inconsistent.
Looking ahead
Met Office long-range seasonal outlooks indicate a higher than average probability of warmer than typical conditions continuing across the region through late summer and into autumn.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – UKUnited Kingdom
Source: Met Office UK Regional & National series (Tmean, Precipitation, Sunshine, Air Frost) © Crown copyright, plus GPCC (Snow, water-equivalent). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – England NW & North Wales
Köppen Cfb · TemperateEngland NW & North Wales has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfb: Oceanic / temperate), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 15.6°C, while January is the coldest at 4.2°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1414mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – England NW & North Wales
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Heatwave Days – England NW & North Wales
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – England NW & North Wales
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Monthly Temperature – England NW & North Wales
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Records – England NW & North Wales
Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Cfb · TemperateHow spring and autumn have shifted in England NW & North Wales. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (8.2°C, from 1900–1929); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 11.0°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Jun (+1.9°C).
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for England NW & North Wales
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
UK Tmean / Tmax / Tmin, rainfall, rain-days, sunshine and air-frost series. © Crown copyright.
Warm Spell Duration Index: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature, ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in England NW & North Wales changing?
England NW & North Wales is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in England NW & North Wales?
England NW & North Wales has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfb: Oceanic / temperate), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 15.6°C, while January is the coldest at 4.2°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1414mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Where does the climate data for England NW & North Wales come from?
Climate data for England NW & North Wales comes from the UK Met Office HadUK-Grid (temperature, rainfall, sunshine, air frost), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the England NW & North Wales climate data cover?
The England NW & North Wales climate profile covers Manchester, Liverpool, Preston, Blackpool and surrounding areas. North-west England and north Wales climate data
How often is the England NW & North Wales climate update refreshed?
The England NW & North Wales climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the England NW & North Wales climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the England NW & North Wales climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.