England has just closed out its hottest late-summer quarter on record, driven by months of persistent high pressure that broke long-standing temperature records and left widespread drought conditions across the country…
City Coverage: London, Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds, Bristol, and Newcastle
Summary
England has just closed out its hottest late-summer quarter on record, driven by months of that broke long-standing temperature records and left widespread drought conditions across the country. Between July and September, exceptionally warm and bright conditions depleted soil moisture, drained reservoirs, and kept daytime temperatures far above historic norms. Even as autumn began to settle, warmth remained firmly entrenched across English counties. Milder conditions are projected to linger over the next 1-3 months.
This month in numbers
During September 2026, England recorded a mean temperature of 16°C, sitting 2.8°C above the 1961–1990 baseline as the 3rd warmest such month in 127 years of records. Frost was completely absent with 0 frost days recorded. Precipitation reached just 44.8 mm (25.8 mm below average), while sunshine reached 142.7 hours (9.3 hours above average). This continued a long-term warming pattern that saw 2025 rank as England's warmest full calendar year on record at 10.92°C, amidst an overall warming trend of +1.49°C.
What changed
The three-month period from July to September 2026 set an all-time record as England's warmest July–September since 1900, with a mean temperature of 17.8°C (+3.1°C anomaly). The quarter was also extraordinarily sunny and dry: 685 hours of sunshine made it the 2nd sunniest July–September in 117 years, while just 109.8 mm of precipitation (89.4 mm below average) ranked as the 3rd driest on record. With only 19 precipitation days (5th fewest on record), the regional warmth outpaced the wider United Kingdom average anomaly of +2.3°C. In global cross-region rankings, the Southeast & Central South region of England ranked 7th warmest overall for three-month temperature anomalies (+3.69°C).
What’s driving change?
The persistent heat and dry conditions were heavily shaped by jet stream shifts, which allowed strong high-pressure systems to stall over western Europe and block Atlantic rain fronts. Because , inland areas experienced amplified heating, while a weak negative North Atlantic Oscillation (+0.18) and a strongly positive Arctic Oscillation (+1.12) further reinforced atmospheric stability over northern Europe. These atmospheric dynamics intensified , turning agricultural drought into acute heat conditions as dry soils lost the ability to cool through evaporation.
Looking ahead
Seasonal forecasting models suggest a higher-than-average probability of warmer-than-normal temperatures continuing across England over the next 1-3 months.
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature anomalies.
Metric
Insight
Temperature
10-Yr AverageActual Year
Climate History
51 of 51 events
1400-1814Pattern Shift
The Thames frost fairs end (Little Ice Age)
The Thames froze solid at London at least 24 times between 1400 and 1814, giving rise to 'frost fairs' on the ice (1608, 1683-84, 1716, 1739-40, 1789, 1814) during the 'Little Ice Age' (~14th century to ~1850). It has never frozen solid enough for a fair since.
Britain's deadliest recorded flood drowns both shores of the Bristol Channel on 30 January 1607, killing an estimated 500-2,000 people and inundating about 200 square miles of farmland up to 14 miles inland - the Somerset Levels in England and the Gwent Levels in south Wales alike.
After the Second World War, coal and oil use grew rapidly across Europe, North America and the Soviet Union. Global sulphur dioxide emissions rose from about 30 to about 130 million tonnes a year by 1980, and the sulphate haze they formed masked part of the greenhouse warming underneath - the effect known as 'global dimming'.
A temperature inversion traps coal smoke over London from 5 to 9 December 1952. Sulphur dioxide from domestic fires and industry turns to sulphuric acid in the fog; initial estimates put the death toll near 4,000, and modern work puts it closer to 12,000. It led directly to the Clean Air Act of 1956.
On the night of 15-16 August 1952, around 90 million tons of rain falls on an already saturated Exmoor. The East and West Lyn rivers tear through Lynmouth in north Devon carrying boulders and debris, destroying over 100 buildings and killing 34 people.
The storm surge kills 307 people in Lincolnshire, Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex on the night of 31 January 1953, breaching sea defences in 1,200 places, flooding 140,000 acres and forcing 32,000 from their homes - England's worst natural disaster of the 20th century, and the event that led directly to the Thames Barrier.
An F3 tornado cuts a 19km path through west London on 8 December 1954, tearing through Gunnersbury and Acton and injuring more than thirty people - one of the strongest tornadoes recorded in Britain.
Severe thunderstorms over southern England on 18 July 1955 drop 279.4mm of rain on Martinstown in Dorset in a single day - still the highest daily rainfall ever recorded anywhere in the United Kingdom.
Passed in direct response to London's Great Smog of December 1952, which killed around 12,000 people. The Act created smoke control areas and curbed domestic coal burning - the start of the long fall in British aerosol pollution that later unmasked greenhouse warming.
The Central England Temperature record, which runs back to 1659, has only two colder winters than 1962-63 - 1683-84 and 1739-40. January 1963 averaged -2.1°C, still the coldest month in that record since January 1814. Snow reached southern England on Boxing Day, with up to 30cm in places.
A deep trough brings exceptionally heavy rain and thunderstorms to south-east England in mid-September 1968, worst on Sunday the 15th. More than 14,000 properties flood across Surrey, Sussex, Kent and the Thames tributaries, following one of the UK's wettest summers on record.
England took the worst of the 1976 drought. Parts of southern England had under 55% of average rainfall across the 16 dry months, parts of the south west went 45 days with no rain at all, and East Anglia's topsoil dried out so thoroughly it began blowing away as dust. The UK's peak temperature of 35.9°C was recorded at Cheltenham on 3 July.
A surge on the night of 11-12 January 1978 floods the east coast again, twenty-five years after 1953. Norfolk and the Humber take the worst of it, and the defences rebuilt after 1953 are tested for the first time.
Global sulphur dioxide emissions peak at about 130 million tonnes a year, then begin a long decline as Europe, North America and Japan clean up their air. As the aerosol mask thins, the rate of global warming picks up through the 1980s.
An exceptionally late snowstorm crosses Britain between 23 and 26 April 1981, dropping over 30cm widely across the Midlands, southern England, Wales and the north west. Drifts reach six metres in Derbyshire and Staffordshire, and Birmingham's temperature fails to climb above 3°C for three days.
On 23 November 1981, 104 confirmed tornadoes touch down across England and Wales in a single day - the largest tornado outbreak ever recorded in Europe. The worst damage is in Leicester, where hundreds of homes are hit and 24 people are injured as part of a school collapses.
Built in direct response to the 1953 flood, the Thames Barrier's ten steel gates begin protecting 125 square kilometres of central London in 1982. It has closed over 200 times in its first forty years - nine successive tides in 2003 alone - and the rising closure rate is one of the clearest local measures of sea-level rise.
A sulphur-rich eruption in Mexico whose aerosol cloud stayed in the stratosphere for more than two years, cooling the Northern Hemisphere by about 0.2°C.
An unforecast hurricane-force windstorm on the night of 15-16 October 1987 killed 18 people in England and felled an estimated 15 million trees - the UK's most famous modern storm, remembered partly for the Met Office forecaster who, hours earlier, told a viewer not to worry about a hurricane.
A Siberian easterly buries eastern and southern England between 11 and 14 January 1987. Over 50cm of snow falls across South East England, locally 75cm, and Caldecott in Rutland drops to -23.3°C on the 13th - with daytime maxima of -6 to -8°C across much of the south.
Daytime warming catches up with the night-led pattern
Across 1961-90, 81% of the world's land saw nights warming faster than days. Across 1991-2020 the pattern reversed: 70% saw days warming faster, as the industrial haze that had been dimming daytime sunshine was cleaned up. The study compares two fixed thirty-year windows; measured as a turning point, this site's own global series turns around 1982.
England took the bulk of the 47 deaths on 25 January 1990, most from collapsing buildings and falling trees, with damage heaviest south of a line from west Wales to Suffolk. Around 3 million trees came down and 500,000 people lost power.
England sets a new UK national temperature record of 37.1°C at Cheltenham on 3 August 1990, beating the 36.7°C that had stood at Raunds, Epsom and Canterbury since 9 August 1911. Temperatures passed 32°C across southern, central and eastern England from the 1st to the 4th, with several swathes of the country above 35°C on the 3rd.
England shows the weakest and least consistent response of the four nations. The NAO's wet/dry signature is reliable in the north-west, but across central, southern and eastern England it varies considerably from winter to winter - those areas sit in the lee of the uplands, and research finds the separate East Atlantic pattern exerts more influence on their rainfall than the NAO does.
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation flips to a warm phase
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation flipped to a warm phase in 1995. For the UK it is one of the background rhythms sitting underneath the warming trend: warm AMO phases are associated with warmer North Atlantic surface waters on the UK's doorstep, and have been linked to wetter summers in parts of north-west Europe. It is a natural cycle of roughly 60-70 years, so it shifts the baseline rather than driving the long-term trend - which matters when reading any UK record set since the mid-1990s.
2000 is England's 2nd-wettest year in this site's record, which begins in 1900, at 1,109mm - only 2012 was wetter - and its autumn was the wettest of all. Across England and Wales it was the wettest autumn since records began in 1766: the Ouse at York rose 5.3m above its normal summer level - the worst flooding there in 400 years - and Lewes and Uckfield in Sussex were swamped on 12 October. Around 10,000 properties flooded.
Brogdale, near Faversham in Kent, reached 38.5°C on 10 August 2003 - England's highest temperature and a new UK record at the time. Excess mortality ran 16% above normal across England and Wales during the heatwave, and 40% above normal in London, with people over 75 worst affected.
About 185mm of rain falls on the hills above Boscastle in Cornwall on 16 August 2004 - some 75mm of it in two hours, a whole August's worth. River levels rise two metres in an hour and tear through the village. No one is killed, but the flood becomes Britain's textbook flash-flood case study.
An IF3 tornado tears through the southern and eastern suburbs of Birmingham on the afternoon of 28 July 2005, stripping roofs and felling trees along its track. It remains the costliest tornado ever recorded in Great Britain.
175mm of rain falls on Cumbria in 36 hours in January 2005, putting much of Carlisle under water and killing three people. The River Eden's peak here stood as the record until Storm Desmond beat it by over half a metre ten years later.
More than 55,000 homes and businesses flood across England between June and July 2007, with Gloucestershire, Yorkshire and Worcestershire worst hit - over 350,000 people in Gloucestershire are left without clean drinking water for days after Mythe water treatment works is inundated. Damage across the floods totals about £6.5 billion.
Seathwaite in Cumbria records 314.4mm of rain in 24 hours in November 2009 - an England record at the time - and Cockermouth and Workington flood severely. The record stood six years, until Storm Desmond's 341.4mm at nearby Honister Pass.
December 2010 was the second coldest December in the Central England Temperature record, which runs back to 1659 - just 0.1°C short of the all-time record set in 1890. It was England's coldest month of any kind since February 1986, driven by a run of blocked, negative-NAO winters between 2009 and 2013.
Start of the sustained rise in UK heatwave frequency
England's own Heatwave Days count rose from a decade mean of 3.64 days in the 2000s to 8.32 in the 2010s, and 14.16 so far in the 2020s - the same sustained UK-wide acceleration, playing out somewhat more strongly in England's own data.
Spring tides, deep low pressure and gale-force winds drive the worst surge on the east coast since 1953 on 5 December 2013, hitting Hunstanton, Wells, Cley and Hemsby. Damage across Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex reaches an estimated £1 billion, but modern defences largely hold and no lives are lost - though cliffs collapse at Hemsby and homes are lost to the sea.
About 100 million m³ of floodwater covered 65 km² of the Somerset Levels through the winter of 2013-14 - the largest flood event on record there, with some communities cut off for weeks. Worst affected: Somerset, Devon, Dorset and Cornwall in the south west, and the Thames Valley in the south east.
A relentless run of Atlantic storms batters the south-west coast through the winter of 2013-14. Waves overtop defences across Cornwall, Devon and Dorset, over 7,000 homes and businesses flood, and on 4-5 February the sea tears away the main railway line at Dawlish, cutting Cornwall and much of Devon off by rail for two months.
Winter 2013-14 (December to February) brought England 401mm of rain, 180% of the 1961-90 average - its wettest winter since this site's Met Office regional record begins in 1901. Across England and Wales as a whole it was the wettest winter since the series began in 1766.
Storm Eva drops a month's rain in a day onto ground already saturated by Storm Desmond three weeks earlier. On 26 December 2015 around 4,000 homes and 2,000 businesses flood across northern England - 2,200 homes in Greater Manchester alone - with parts of Leeds, Calderdale and York under up to 1.8m of water.
New UK all-time records for 24-hour rainfall (341.1mm at Honister, Cumbria) and 48-hour rainfall (405mm at Thirlmere, Cumbria). Over 5,200 properties flooded across Cumbria and Lancashire; worst-hit towns include Carlisle, Kendal, Keswick, Cockermouth.
Globally, the eleven warmest years on record have all happened since 2015. England's own record is a looser fit - seven of its eleven warmest fall in that span, with 2014, 2011, 2007 and 2006 outside it. Its warmest year is 2025.
England took the deepest snow and the lowest temperature of the 2018 cold wave - 57cm in Gloucestershire, the heaviest widespread fall in years, and -14.2°C at Faversham in Kent, which by coincidence also holds England's 2003 heat record of 38.5°C. It followed a sudden stratospheric warming in mid-February that split the polar vortex.
New international shipping rules cut the sulphur allowed in ship fuel from 3.5% to 0.5% almost overnight, removing about 8 million tonnes of sulphur dioxide a year. With less sulphate haze over the oceans, it may have added around 0.1°C of warming by 2023-24.
February 2020 was England's wettest February in this site's Met Office record from 1900 - 160.9mm, nearly three times its 1961-90 average - as Storms Ciara, Dennis and Jorge followed one another in on a strong, southward-shifted jet stream. It beat the 131.9mm of February 1923.
A rare Met Office red warning is issued as Storm Arwen drives northerly gales down the east coast on 26 November 2021. Around 225,000 Scottish properties lose power, some for over a week, three people are killed across the UK, and Scotland's forests take large-scale damage.
Storm Christoph's heaviest rain falls across north Wales and northern England on 19-21 January 2021, forcing around 2,000 families from their homes in Manchester, Merseyside and Wrexham. The Dee at Bangor-on-Dee reaches a record level, and Honister in Cumbria records 123.8 mm of rain in a day.
England recorded the UK's first 40°C reading on 19 July 2022 - 40.3°C at Coningsby, Lincolnshire, with Heathrow reaching 40.2°C the same day. Forty-six stations beat the old UK record of 38.7°C set at Cambridge in 2019, which had itself beaten 38.5°C at Faversham in 2003.
England's driest July since 1935 left Bewl Water reservoir (Kent/East Sussex) exposed; South East Water imposed a usage ban across Kent and Sussex from 12 August 2022 - the region's first hosepipe ban since 2012.
170mm of rain falls in 18 hours across Greater Manchester over New Year 2024-25, and the Mersey reaches 3.71m at Northenden - its highest level in 66 years. A major incident is declared on 1 January, and more than 1,000 people leave their homes in Didsbury, Northenden and Harpurhey.
England has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfb: Oceanic / temperate), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 17.1°C, while January is the coldest at 4.4°C. Annual precipitation averages around 897mm (about 20mm of it as snow), spread fairly evenly across the year.
Warmest month
Jul 17°C
Coldest month
Jan 4°C
Annual rainfall
877mm
Wettest month
Dec 100mm
Annual snowfall
20mmwater-equiv.
Snowiest month
Jan 6mm
RainSnow (water-equivalent)
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
How spring and autumn have shifted in England. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (8.8°C, from 1900–1929); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 11.7°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Shifting summer
27 days Longer
Warm Season
1900–1929 Baseline: 30 Apr → 21 Oct · 174 days
2016–2025 Now: 16 Apr → 4 Nov · 202 days
−13d+14d
JanJFebFMarMAprAMayMJunJJulJAugASepSOctONovNDecD
Spr 13 days EarlierAut 14 days Later
baseline avgrecent avgClickTap a marker for each decade
1900–19292016–20251900–1929 annual mean
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Jun (+2.1°C).
Live GDACS alerts in England - Red (Major), Orange (Severe) or Green (Moderate) - and the long-term record of weather and climate disasters.
Live Alerts
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Alerts, Last 12 Months
Major
0
None since 2021
Severe
0
None since 2021
Moderate
2
UK Weather Disasters in 2024 - Latest Complete Year
Disasters
2
2.4 a year, 2015-2024
Deaths
578
946 a year, 2015-2024
UK Weather Disasters, 2015-2024
Most Frequent
Storms & Cyclones
11 of 24 disasters
Deadliest
Extreme Temperature
9,435 of 9,457 deaths
Disasters: EM-DAT, CRED / UCLouvain, via Our World in Data - 10+ deaths, 100+ people affected, or a declared emergency or call for international help; EM-DAT records them by country, so these are UK-wide figures. Alerts: GDACS.
The natural climate patterns that measurably shape seasonal temperature or rainfall in England, from this site’s own data since 1950 - long-term trends removed, and ENSO’s share taken out before scoring the others, so each is credited only for what it adds.
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)strong link
Steers the North Atlantic storm track - Europe's winters especially.
Now: positive · +0.35(30-day mean to 2026-10-16)
Strongest in Jun-Aug rainfall: a positive NAO tends to bring drier conditions here, a negative NAO the reverse (about 43% of year-to-year variation). Also Dec-Feb temperature (positive NAO: warmer).
How readily Arctic air spills south - tied to the polar vortex.
Now: positive · +1.06(30-day mean to 2026-10-16)
Strongest in Dec-Feb temperature: a positive AO tends to bring warmer conditions here, a negative AO the reverse (about 40% of year-to-year variation). Also Jun-Aug rainfall (positive AO: drier).
Showing UK-wide figures - England is part of the United Kingdom. Sub-national emissions and electricity-mix breakdowns are not yet published in a unified format.
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
England is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in England?
England has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfb: Oceanic / temperate), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 17.1°C, while January is the coldest at 4.4°C. Annual precipitation averages around 897mm (about 20mm of it as snow), spread fairly evenly across the year.
Which climate drivers affect the weather in England?
Measured from seasonal temperature and rainfall in England since 1950, with the long-term warming trend removed (and ENSO's own share removed before scoring the other drivers), the climate drivers with a clear effect here are: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - strong, strongest in Jun-Aug rainfall, which a positive NAO tends to make drier here (a negative NAO the reverse), about 43% of year-to-year variation; the Arctic Oscillation (AO) - strong, strongest in Dec-Feb temperature, which a positive AO tends to make warmer here (a negative AO the reverse), about 40% of year-to-year variation. Their current state is shown in the Climate Drivers section of this page.
What extreme weather affects England?
In 2024, the latest complete year, the international disaster database EM-DAT recorded 2 weather and climate disasters across United Kingdom (EM-DAT records disasters by country), against an average of 2.4 a year in 2015-2024, with 578 deaths. Over those ten years the most frequent type was storms & cyclones (11 of 24) and the deadliest extreme temperature. GDACS, the UN and European Commission's disaster alert system, issued 0 Major (Red) and 0 Severe (Orange) alerts for England in the last 12 months. Live alerts are on this page and on the Extreme Weather tracker.
Where does the climate data for England come from?
Climate data for England comes from the UK Met Office HadUK-Grid (temperature, rainfall, sunshine, air frost), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the England climate data cover?
The England climate profile covers London, Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds and surrounding areas. National England climate data from the Met Office regional series
How often is the England climate update refreshed?
The England climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the England climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the England climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.
What major climate events has England experienced?
Major climate events in England include The Thames frost fairs end (Little Ice Age) (1400-1814); The UK's wettest day on record (1955); The late April snowstorm of 1981; August 1990 UK heatwave breaks 79-year record; The Carlisle flood of 2005; UK's post-2013 warmth acceleration; The Beast from the East (2018); The New Year Mersey floods (2025). The Climate History panel on this page lists 51 sourced events and pattern shifts relevant to England, the earliest from 1400 - 43 about England itself and the rest global context such as volcanic eruptions and El Niño events. Each entry carries its own sources and can be searched, filtered to local events or by category, and sorted by date; scrolling the list moves a cursor across the chart above so you can see where each event falls in the record.
Where does the Climate History list for England come from, and how is it checked?
It is a hand-reviewed register, not an automatic feed. Every entry is sourced, and each one records how it was verified - against this site's own data series, against a peer-reviewed paper, or against the public record of the event. 19 of the 51 entries here are written specifically about England, usually quoting its own ranking or measured figures. The rest give global or national context shared with wider pages. Where a figure is narrower than it first appears, or a famous claim does not hold locally, the entry says so.
Are nights warming faster than days in England?
The Long-Term Trends chart has a Day/Night toggle showing Day Highs and Night Lows anchored around the average trend, so they always bracket it rather than both drifting to one side. Across most of the world, nights warmed faster than days from the 1960s to the late 1980s (air pollution dimming daytime sun), and days have generally been catching back up since, as skies cleared. Toggle Day/Night on the chart above to see which pattern England follows.
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