Croatia Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Zagreb, Split, Rijeka, Osijek, and Zadar
Summary
Croatia endured a relentless sequence of summer heatwaves that triggered widespread red weather warnings across both Adriatic coastal cities and inland regions. The mid-year heat formed part of an exceptionally warm May to July spell, unfolding alongside a moderate El Niño forecast to peak at Very Strong in Oct-Dec. The intense temperatures placed severe heat stress on urban areas and coastal ecosystems, with warmer and drier than average conditions expected to persist into late summer.
This month in numbers
The May to July period saw temperatures average 21.03°C, running 2.7°C above the 1961-1990 baseline to rank as the 5th warmest such period in 87 years of records. July itself registered an average temperature of 23.66°C, placing 2.8°C above average as the 8th warmest for the month since 1940. On a global scale, land temperatures for the month reached 1.6°C above baseline to rank 3rd highest on record, while the global May to July three-month average ranked 2nd warmest ever observed.
What changed
The elevated summer temperatures built upon an already warm start to the year, marked by a February that ran 4.0°C above baseline and a June that reached 3.9°C above normal. Over the longer term, Croatia has warmed by 1.97°C against its 1961-1990 baseline, with recent years dominating the historical record books. The full year of 2025 ranked as the 5th warmest on record with an average of 13.22°C, closely following 2024, the hottest year ever recorded in the country at 14.24°C.
What’s driving change?
The recent summer heatwaves were largely propelled by high-pressure ridge systems, or , that trapped hot air masses over southern Europe. In densely built coastal hubs, the effect further prevented overnight cooling, keeping nighttime temperatures elevated. On a broader scale, a moderate El Niño in the tropical Pacific, tracked at ENSO, is contributing to widespread background warming, though its historical teleconnection to Adriatic climate patterns remains relatively weak.
Looking ahead
Seasonal outlooks suggest that warmer and drier than average conditions are likely to persist through late summer, while El Niño is forecast to peak at Very Strong strength toward the end of the year.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Croatia
Köppen Cfa · TemperateCroatia has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfa: Humid subtropical), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 23.4°C, while January is the coldest at 2.9°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1020mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Croatia
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Croatia
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Croatia
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Croatia
Latest month is provisional and may be revised by the data provider in the next update cycle.
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Croatia
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Dfb · ContinentalHow spring and autumn have shifted in Croatia. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (11.0°C, from 1940–1969); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 21.9°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Feb (+4.0°C).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Croatia
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Croatia changing?
Croatia is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Croatia?
Croatia has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfa: Humid subtropical), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 23.4°C, while January is the coldest at 2.9°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1020mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Where does the climate data for Croatia come from?
Climate data for Croatia comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Croatia climate data cover?
The Croatia climate profile covers Zagreb, Split, Rijeka, Osijek and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Croatia
How often is the Croatia climate update refreshed?
The Croatia climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Croatia climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Croatia climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.