Botswana Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Gaborone, Francistown, Molepolole, Serowe, and Maun
Summary
July brought mild midwinter conditions across Botswana, with average temperatures rising 1.3°C above historical norms to mark the 11th warmest month of its kind on record. The elevated warmth comes as a moderate El Niño continues to intensify in the tropical Pacific, with forecasters pointing to a 93% probability of a Very Strong event peaking in Sep-Nov. With vast fuel loads left over from recent rain, national authorities have already warned of heightened wildfire risks as dry, hot weather sets in over coming months.
This month in numbers
Botswana recorded an average temperature of 15.72°C during July 2026, sitting 1.3°C above the 1961-1990 baseline. That made it the 11th warmest corresponding month in 87 years of records, though well below the all-time peak of 16.33°C set in July 2022. Across the globe, land temperatures surged to extraordinary levels, marking the 3rd warmest July on record worldwide at 1.6°C above baseline.
What changed
The May-July season averaged 16.51°C (+0.9°C above baseline), ranking as Botswana's 19th warmest three-month period on record for that time of year. Globally, the same three-month window ranked as the 2nd warmest May-July on record (+1.5°C anomaly). Despite recent midwinter warmth, Botswana's 12-month rolling temperature anomaly of +0.41°C ranks 230th out of 232 tracked regions globally, placing it among the five coolest relative anomalies worldwide over the past year. In the long term, Botswana's annual temperatures have warmed by 0.93°C compared to the 1961-1990 baseline, led by the record hot year of 2024 at 23.42°C.
What’s driving change?
Southern African winter weather is largely steered by hemispheric pressure shifts, but the overarching background warming trend is driven by and in semi-arid environments. Tropical Pacific dynamics are also taking centre stage, with a moderate El Niño currently active in the ocean as tracked at ENSO. While El Niño typically exerts its strongest influence on Southern Africa during the summer months, its development is already sharpening seasonal outlooks across the region.
Looking ahead
Official seasonal forecasts indicate a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will dominate the upcoming summer, bringing a heightened likelihood of below-normal rainfall, prolonged dry spells, and elevated temperatures across Botswana through late 2026 and early 2027.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Botswana
Köppen BSh · AridBotswana has a arid climate (Köppen BSh: Hot steppe), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. November is typically the warmest month, averaging 26.7°C, while July is the coldest at 15.2°C. Annual precipitation averages around 379mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Botswana
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Botswana
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Botswana
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Botswana
Latest month is provisional and may be revised by the data provider in the next update cycle.
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Botswana
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm/cold + wet/dryKöppen BSh · AridBotswana has both a clear warm/cold cycle (±5.5°C) and a wet/dry cycle (50× wet:dry ratio). Both sides of the annual rhythm are shown below.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Jan (-24 mm, -22%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Botswana
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Botswana changing?
Botswana is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Botswana?
Botswana has a arid climate (Köppen BSh: Hot steppe), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. November is typically the warmest month, averaging 26.7°C, while July is the coldest at 15.2°C. Annual precipitation averages around 379mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Botswana come from?
Climate data for Botswana comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Botswana climate data cover?
The Botswana climate profile covers Gaborone, Francistown, Molepolole, Serowe and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Botswana
How often is the Botswana climate update refreshed?
The Botswana climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Botswana climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Botswana climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.