Zimbabwe Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Harare, Bulawayo, Chitungwiza, Mutare, and Gweru
Summary
Zimbabwe recorded its 3rd warmest May to July season on record as winter temperatures soared well above normal, capping a dry period with a July that ranked as the 5th warmest on record. The persistent unseasonable warmth arrives alongside heightened concern across southern Africa: a moderate El Niño is currently active in the Pacific and is forecast to peak at Very Strong during September to November with a 93% probability. With memory of recent dry spells still fresh, Zimbabwean authorities have already issued preliminary drought advisories and activated contingency planning for the upcoming 2026/27 cropping season, with unseasonably warm and dry conditions expected to persist over the coming months.
This month in numbers
The month delivered an average temperature of 17.33°C, standing 1.6°C above the 1961–1990 baseline and marking the 5th warmest July in 87 years of record-keeping. The broader May to July period was even more remarkable, averaging 18.26°C with a matching 1.6°C anomaly to become the 3rd warmest May to July stretch on record, second only to recent extremes like 2024. In a global context, this coincided with the 3rd warmest July on record for global land areas (15.8°C, +1.6°C anomaly) and the 2nd warmest May to July worldwide.
What changed
The winter warmth reflects a sustained shift in Zimbabwe's thermal profile. Every month since February 2026 has registered above historical averages, with May (+1.7°C) and July (+1.6°C) driving the unseasonable heat during what is traditionally the coolest time of year. Across the broader 12-month picture, Zimbabwe recorded an average temperature of 21.8°C in 2025 (its 14th warmest year on record), fitting into a long-term warming trajectory of +1.14°C compared to the mid-20th-century baseline. Globally, 6 of the top 10 warmest 3-month anomalies were concentrated in European countries, placing Zimbabwe in the middle tier of worldwide land anomalies.
What’s driving change?
The primary atmospheric engine currently influencing the region's climate trajectory is ENSO, tracked on our live monitor at ENSO. A moderate El Niño is established in the tropical Pacific, with sea-surface temperatures continuing to intensify. In southern Africa, El Niño historically carries a 70% probability of above-average winter and summer temperatures accompanied by below-normal rainfall. This thermal push is further intensified by , as depleted soil moisture from dry winter months prevents natural evaporative cooling and allows incoming solar radiation to heat the ground directly.
Looking ahead
Seasonal climate models indicate that unseasonably elevated temperatures are expected to persist over the next 1 to 3 months, with climate forecasting centres estimating a 93% probability that the current El Niño will reach Very Strong intensity between September and November 2026, exacerbating drought risk for the upcoming agricultural season.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Zimbabwe
Köppen BSh · AridZimbabwe has a arid climate (Köppen BSh: Hot steppe), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. November is typically the warmest month, averaging 25.2°C, while July is the coldest at 16.7°C. Annual precipitation averages around 580mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Zimbabwe
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Zimbabwe
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Zimbabwe
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Zimbabwe
Latest month is provisional and may be revised by the data provider in the next update cycle.
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Zimbabwe
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm/cold + wet/dryKöppen BSh · AridZimbabwe has both a clear warm/cold cycle (±4.6°C) and a wet/dry cycle (112× wet:dry ratio). Both sides of the annual rhythm are shown below.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Jan (-38 mm, -22%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Zimbabwe
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Zimbabwe changing?
Zimbabwe is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Zimbabwe?
Zimbabwe has a arid climate (Köppen BSh: Hot steppe), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. November is typically the warmest month, averaging 25.2°C, while July is the coldest at 16.7°C. Annual precipitation averages around 580mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Zimbabwe come from?
Climate data for Zimbabwe comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Zimbabwe climate data cover?
The Zimbabwe climate profile covers Harare, Bulawayo, Chitungwiza, Mutare and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Zimbabwe
How often is the Zimbabwe climate update refreshed?
The Zimbabwe climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Zimbabwe climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Zimbabwe climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.