Zambia Climate
Top 5 Cities: Lusaka, Kitwe, Ndola, Kabwe, and Livingstone
This month in numbers
Zambia experienced its 11th warmest April on record, with an average temperature of 22.5°C, marking a significant anomaly of +1.2°C compared to the 1961–1990 baseline. The three-month period from February to April 2026 was the 9th warmest on record, with an average temperature of 22.83°C, an anomaly of +1.3°C. Globally, April 2026 was the 2nd warmest April for land temperatures, with an anomaly of +1.1°C, highlighting a widespread warming trend.
What changed
Zambia's consistently warmer-than-average temperatures over the past three months contribute to a long-term warming trend of +0.99°C against the 1961–1990 baseline. The country's 2025 average temperature of 22.81°C was the warmest on record. This regional warming aligns with the broader global picture, as global land temperatures for February–April 2026 also ranked as the 2nd warmest on record. Zambia is currently experiencing a drought event that began in December 2025 and is ongoing, affecting 84 districts and approximately 9 million people, leading to severe water shortages and crop failures. This represents 100% of the drought events logged for Zambia over the past 12 months, an unusual concentration. Additionally, two wildfire events were recorded between May 18th and May 20th, representing 100% of the annual total for wildfires in Zambia, which is also an unusual concentration. For more details on active extreme weather events, visit Extreme Weather tracker.
What’s driving change?
The persistent warmth and drought conditions in Zambia are significantly influenced by the evolving El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. While the current state is Neutral, there is an 82% probability of El Niño emerging in May-July 2026, with probabilities rising to 98% by August-October 2026. Historically, El Niño events in Southern Africa typically bring warmer and drier conditions, often leading to major maize-belt droughts and widespread food insecurity, as seen in the 2015-16 and 2023-24 events. This aligns with the current drought impacting Zambia, which has severely affected agriculture and hydropower generation. The effect further exacerbates warming in arid regions, as soils unable to cool through evaporation contribute to higher temperatures. also plays a role, removing the cooling effect of forests and releasing stored carbon.
Looking ahead
The strong forecast for El Niño to develop and persist through the latter half of 2026 suggests a continued likelihood of warmer and drier conditions for Zambia in the coming months, potentially exacerbating existing drought impacts.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
Loading climate data...
Data Sources
Data Sources for Zambia
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Zambia changing?
Zambia is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Zambia come from?
Climate data for Zambia comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Zambia climate data cover?
The Zambia climate profile covers Lusaka, Kitwe, Ndola, Kabwe and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Zambia
How often is the Zambia climate update refreshed?
The Zambia climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.