Zambia Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Lusaka, Kitwe, Ndola, Kabwe, and Livingstone
Summary
Zambia experienced a warm start to its dry season as May–July temperatures reached 19.18°C, while July recorded a mean temperature of 18.24°C, sitting 0.4°C above the long-term baseline. While local winter warming remained relatively understated compared to global extremes, the country faces growing environmental stress as a moderate El Niño continues to intensify across the tropical Pacific. With a 93% probability of peaking at Very Strong in Sep-Nov, this climate pattern poses significant risks for suppressed rainfall and agricultural drought across Southern Africa, with hot and dry conditions expected to build through the coming months.
This month in numbers
July 2026 in Zambia delivered a mean temperature of 18.24°C, which sits 0.4°C above the 1961–1990 baseline and ranks as the 34th warmest on record for the month in 87 years of records. The broader May–July period recorded an average temperature of 19.18°C, placing it as the 19th warmest May–July on record. In contrast to Zambia's moderate local anomaly, global land temperatures reached extraordinary heights, with July ranking as the 3rd warmest on record globally at 15.8°C (+1.6°C anomaly) and the May–July global land average ranking 2nd warmest overall at 14.34°C (+1.5°C anomaly).
What changed
Zambia's winter thermal anomaly remained modest compared to globally widespread heatwaves, placing 227th out of 232 tracked regions for its single-month departure in July and 224th over a rolling 12-month window. Despite this subdued winter signal, Zambia's long-term climate trajectory shows clear warming, with a background trend of +0.93°C above baseline. The latest complete year, 2025, averaged 22.02°C as the 21st warmest year on record, following closely behind the record-breaking warmth of 2024 when national temperatures peaked at 22.8°C.
What’s driving change?
The primary driver shaping seasonal variability across Southern Africa is ENSO, with a moderate El Niño currently active in the tropical Pacific and tracked on our live monitor at ENSO. Historically, El Niño events disrupt regional rainfall through , routinely bringing suppressed precipitation and elevated warmth to Zambia during the core farming season. In the immediate term, dry winter conditions have heightened land susceptibility, and all of Zambia's 2 wildfires this year have happened in the past month, tracked on our live map at Extreme Weather tracker. As takes hold during the dry period, surface moisture deficits further exacerbate localized heating.
Looking ahead
With official forecasts indicating a 93% probability of a Very Strong El Niño peaking in late autumn, climate models point toward an increased risk of severe dry spells and elevated agricultural drought across Zambia over the coming months.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Zambia
Köppen BSh · AridZambia has a arid climate (Köppen BSh: Hot steppe), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. October is typically the warmest month, averaging 26.3°C, while July is the coldest at 18.2°C. Annual precipitation averages around 691mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Zambia
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Zambia
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Zambia
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Zambia
Latest month is provisional and may be revised by the data provider in the next update cycle.
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Zambia
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm/cold + wet/dryKöppen Aw · TropicalZambia has both a clear warm/cold cycle (±3.9°C) and a wet/dry cycle (211× wet:dry ratio). Both sides of the annual rhythm are shown below.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Jan (-76 mm, -34%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Zambia
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Zambia changing?
Zambia is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Zambia?
Zambia has a arid climate (Köppen BSh: Hot steppe), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. October is typically the warmest month, averaging 26.3°C, while July is the coldest at 18.2°C. Annual precipitation averages around 691mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Zambia come from?
Climate data for Zambia comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Zambia climate data cover?
The Zambia climate profile covers Lusaka, Kitwe, Ndola, Kabwe and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Zambia
How often is the Zambia climate update refreshed?
The Zambia climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Zambia climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Zambia climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.