Vanuatu Climate
Top 5 Cities: Port Vila, Luganville, Isangel, Sola, and Lakatoro
This month in numbers
Vanuatu experienced its 2nd warmest April on record in 2026, with an average temperature of 26.51°C, an anomaly of +1.2°C compared to the 1961–1990 baseline. This follows a trend of unusually high temperatures, as the February–April 2026 period also ranked as the 3rd warmest on record, with an average of 26.53°C and an anomaly of +0.8°C. Globally, April 2026 was the 2nd warmest April on record for land temperatures, and the February–April period was also the 2nd warmest globally for land temperatures.
What changed
Vanuatu's consistently high temperatures over the past three months stand out, with the country experiencing its 3rd warmest February–April period on record. While the global land temperature also saw its 2nd warmest February–April, Vanuatu's individual ranking highlights a significant regional warming trend. In the broader context of cross-region rankings, Vanuatu sits at 211th out of 234 for the 3-month anomaly, indicating that while it is experiencing warmer conditions, other regions globally are seeing even more pronounced temperature increases.
What’s driving change?
The warming trend in Vanuatu is influenced by the broader global warming patterns, with the land warming faster than the ocean. While the current ENSO state is Neutral, with an anomaly of +0.11°C for February-April 2026, forecasts indicate a strong likelihood of El Niño developing in the coming months, with an 82% chance for May-July and a 92% chance for June-August. Historically, El Niño conditions in the Southwest Pacific typically bring warmer and drier conditions to Vanuatu, along with a shift in tropical cyclone tracks further east. Vanuatu also experienced Tropical Cyclone Urmil in late February 2026, which prompted a Red Alert for Tafea Province as it intensified south of the country. Additionally, increased volcanic activity, including gas emissions and ashfall, was reported from the Ambae volcano in February 2026, leading to a raised alert level and impacts on local communities.
Looking ahead
With a strong likelihood of El Niño developing in the coming months, Vanuatu can anticipate warmer and drier conditions, which could put pressure on water supplies and agriculture.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Vanuatu
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Vanuatu changing?
Vanuatu is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Vanuatu come from?
Climate data for Vanuatu comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Vanuatu climate data cover?
The Vanuatu climate profile covers Port Vila, Luganville, Isangel, Sola and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Vanuatu
How often is the Vanuatu climate update refreshed?
The Vanuatu climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.