Vanuatu Climate
Top 5 Cities: Port Vila, Luganville, Isangel, Sola, and Lakatoro
This month in numbers
Vanuatu experienced its 2nd warmest April on record in 2026, with an average temperature of 26.51°C, marking an anomaly of +1.2°C compared to the 1961–1990 baseline. The period of February to April 2026 also ranked as the 3rd warmest on record, with an average temperature of 26.53°C, an anomaly of +0.8°C. Globally, April 2026 was the 2nd warmest April on record for land temperatures, and the February-April period was the 2nd warmest for global land temperatures.
What changed
The recent warmth in Vanuatu continues a significant trend, with 2025 being the 2nd warmest year on record since 1941. The long-term trend for the region shows a warming of +0.60°C against the 1961–1990 baseline. Vanuatu's April anomaly of +1.19°C places it 160th out of 234 regions globally for the latest month, while its 3-month anomaly of +0.85°C ranks it 205th.
What’s driving change?
The current climate patterns are significantly influenced by the evolving ENSO state. The NOAA ONI for February-April 2026 indicates Neutral conditions, with a weekly Niño 3.4 SST anomaly of +0.9°C. However, forecasts suggest a strong likelihood of El Niño developing in the coming months, with a 61% chance for May-July and a 79% chance for June-August. Historically, El Niño conditions in the Southwest Pacific, including Vanuatu, typically lead to warmer and drier conditions, with tropical cyclones shifting further east. Vanuatu has also seen recent seismic activity, with a strong M7.3 earthquake occurring off Espiritu Santo Island on March 30, causing some damage and power loss. Additionally, a wildfire event was recorded between April 25 and May 4, representing 100% of the annual total for Vanuatu, which is an unusual concentration for the region. The Ambae volcano also remained in a minor eruption in March, with acid rain and ash impacting four islands.
Looking ahead
The strong forecast for El Niño in the coming months suggests that Vanuatu could experience warmer and drier conditions in the weeks and months ahead, with a potential shift in tropical cyclone activity.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Vanuatu
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Vanuatu changing?
Vanuatu is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Vanuatu come from?
Climate data for Vanuatu comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Vanuatu climate data cover?
The Vanuatu climate profile covers Port Vila, Luganville, Isangel, Sola and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Vanuatu
How often is the Vanuatu climate update refreshed?
The Vanuatu climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.