Vanuatu Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Port Vila, Luganville, Isangel, Sola, and Lakatoro
Summary
Vanuatu experienced an unusually cool and dry period, running 0.2°C below its long-term average even as global land temperatures soared to their 3rd highest on record. The persistent lack of rainfall prompted national authorities to declare a formal drought across northern provinces like Torba as community water supplies dwindled. This dry stretch aligns with a moderate El Niño forecast to peak at Very Strong in Sep-Nov, with suppressed rainfall expected to persist over the next 1-3 months.
This month in numbers
Vanuatu recorded an average temperature of 23.25°C, which sits 0.2°C below the 1961–1990 baseline and ranks 70th out of 87 years on record for the month. Across our global database of 232 countries and territories, Vanuatu ranked among the coolest regions relative to normal, placing 230th for its single-month anomaly (-0.21°C). In contrast, global land temperatures reached 15.8°C, standing 1.6°C above average to mark the 3rd warmest July in recorded history.
What changed
Looking at the three-month season from May to July 2026, Vanuatu averaged 24.36°C, sitting 0.2°C above baseline and ranking 33rd of 87 years on record for that seasonal window. Globally, land temperatures over the same three-month window averaged 14.34°C, running 1.5°C above baseline to register as the 2nd warmest May–July on record. Vanuatu ranked 227th out of 232 regions worldwide for its three-month temperature anomaly (+0.22°C), illustrating how the South Pacific lagged behind the extraordinary heatwaves sweeping the Northern Hemisphere.
What’s driving change?
The primary driver behind Vanuatu's rainfall deficit and subdued temperatures is ENSO, with a moderate El Niño currently active in the tropical Pacific. Shifted atmospheric circulation patterns brought by El Niño suppress cloud formation and rainfall over the South Pacific, disrupting local trade winds and driving prolonged dry conditions. Because surfaces, the surrounding cool marine waters have also kept regional air temperatures relatively muted compared to continental landmasses. Live ocean and atmospheric monitoring can be tracked via our dedicated page at ENSO.
Looking ahead
With seasonal models projecting a 93% probability of a Very Strong El Niño developing by late spring, rainfall deficits and drought conditions are expected to intensify across Vanuatu over the next 1-3 months.
Sources:
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Vanuatu
Köppen Af · TropicalVanuatu has a tropical climate (Köppen Af: Tropical rainforest), with little variation in temperature or rainfall across the year. February is typically the warmest month, averaging 26.7°C, while August is the coldest at 24.0°C. Annual precipitation averages around 2687mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Vanuatu
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Vanuatu
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Vanuatu
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Vanuatu
Latest month is provisional and may be revised by the data provider in the next update cycle.
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Vanuatu
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Weakly seasonalKöppen Af · TropicalVanuatu is weakly seasonal - temperature barely changes across the year (2.6°C range) and rainfall is fairly even. The clearest climate signal here is overall warming: monthly temperature has risen in every month.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Jul (+0.9°C).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Vanuatu
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Vanuatu changing?
Vanuatu is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Vanuatu?
Vanuatu has a tropical climate (Köppen Af: Tropical rainforest), with little variation in temperature or rainfall across the year. February is typically the warmest month, averaging 26.7°C, while August is the coldest at 24.0°C. Annual precipitation averages around 2687mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Where does the climate data for Vanuatu come from?
Climate data for Vanuatu comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Vanuatu climate data cover?
The Vanuatu climate profile covers Port Vila, Luganville, Isangel, Sola and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Vanuatu
How often is the Vanuatu climate update refreshed?
The Vanuatu climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Vanuatu climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Vanuatu climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.