Tennessee Climate
Top 5 Cities: Nashville, Memphis, Knoxville, Chattanooga, and Clarksville
This month in numbers
Tennessee experienced its 2nd warmest March on record, with an average temperature of 14.33°C, a significant 5.2°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. Maximum temperatures also ranked 2nd warmest at 21.39°C, an anomaly of +5.8°C. This warmth was accompanied by exceptionally dry conditions, as March precipitation totalled only 69.85 mm, ranking 73rd driest out of 77 years on record, and representing a deficit of 70.7 mm compared to the baseline. The period of January to March 2026 also saw the 5th warmest maximum temperatures on record, at 13.91°C, and the 75th driest precipitation, with only 77.13 mm of rainfall.
What changed
This past March was remarkably warm and dry for Tennessee, with temperatures averaging over 10°F above normal for much of the month. This contributed to the state ranking 16th globally for its one-month temperature anomaly, within a striking pattern where all of the top 10 warmest anomalies were US states. The persistent warmth and lack of rainfall have exacerbated drought conditions across the state, with over 69% of Tennessee experiencing some level of drought by the end of March. This is an unusual concentration of drought events, representing 100% of the annual total for Tennessee.
What’s driving change?
The significant warming observed in Tennessee this month is largely influenced by a heat dome effect, which trapped hot air over the region, leading to record-breaking temperatures. The ongoing Neutral ENSO state, with a weekly Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly of +0.9°C, is forecast to transition to an El Niño phase by May-July, with a 61% probability. While the current Neutral state has less predictable impacts, a developing El Niño typically brings warmer and drier conditions to Tennessee during the summer months. The dry conditions have also been linked to an elevated wildfire potential across the state. Additionally, a strong cold front in mid-March brought the first tornadoes of the year to Middle Tennessee, highlighting the volatile weather patterns experienced.
Looking ahead
Seasonal forecasts from NOAA suggest that Tennessee is likely to experience higher-than-normal temperatures through spring, with precipitation being harder to predict.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Tennessee
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Tennessee changing?
Tennessee is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Tennessee come from?
Climate data for Tennessee comes from NOAA Climate at a Glance (temperature and precipitation), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Tennessee climate data cover?
The Tennessee climate profile covers Nashville, Memphis, Knoxville, Chattanooga and surrounding areas. Tennessee climate data from NOAA Climate at a Glance
How often is the Tennessee climate update refreshed?
The Tennessee climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.