Tennessee Climate
Top 5 Cities: Nashville, Memphis, Knoxville, Chattanooga, and Clarksville
This month in numbers
Tennessee experienced its warmest April on record in 2026, with an average temperature of 18.06°C, marking an anomaly of +3.9°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. This also made the February–April 2026 period the warmest on record for the state, at 12.8°C, an anomaly of +3.7°C. Maximum temperatures in April were also the highest on record at 25.44°C, an anomaly of +4.3°C. The three-month period from February to April also saw the 3rd lowest precipitation on record, with only 76.2 mm, a deficit of 47 mm compared to the baseline.
What changed
Tennessee's significantly warmer and drier conditions this spring stand in contrast to the national picture, where the contiguous United States saw a +1.9°C temperature anomaly in April, and a +1.4°C anomaly for the February-April period. The state's April temperature anomaly of +3.86°C ranked it 11th warmest out of 234 regions globally. For the February-April period, Tennessee was 24th warmest globally, while nine of the top ten warmest regions globally were US states, indicating a striking concentration of warmth across the country.
What’s driving change?
The pronounced warmth and dryness in Tennessee are largely influenced by a developing El Niño. Forecasters indicate an 82% chance of El Niño developing between May and July, with projections suggesting it could become a strong event later in the year. While El Niño's summer impacts on Tennessee can be nuanced, it typically brings a drier, warmer winter to the Southeast USA, and can reduce hurricane development in the Gulf by increasing wind shear. The state has also been grappling with significant drought conditions, with approximately 97% of Tennessee under active drought as of May 19, 2026, including areas of moderate, severe, and extreme drought. This dryness has contributed to an unusual concentration of wildfires, with four events recorded in May alone, representing 100% of the annual total for the past 12 months, and numerous brush and wildland fires occurring during March and April. For more details on extreme weather, visit Extreme Weather tracker.
Looking ahead
The evolving El Niño phase suggests that June tends to be a wetter month during developing El Niño episodes, which may bring some relief to the drought-stricken areas of Tennessee in the coming weeks and months.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Tennessee
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Tennessee changing?
Tennessee is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Tennessee come from?
Climate data for Tennessee comes from NOAA Climate at a Glance (temperature and precipitation), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Tennessee climate data cover?
The Tennessee climate profile covers Nashville, Memphis, Knoxville, Chattanooga and surrounding areas. Tennessee climate data from NOAA Climate at a Glance
How often is the Tennessee climate update refreshed?
The Tennessee climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.