Tennessee Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Nashville, Memphis, Knoxville, Chattanooga, and Clarksville
Summary
Tennessee experienced a warm and unusually wet July, capping a summer stretch marked by above-average rainfall and persistent muggy heat. While overall daytime temperatures remained elevated rather than breaking historic records, nighttime warmth stood out across the state. With midsummer moisture having soaked soils, conditions are expected to transition toward drier, warmer weather heading into late summer and early autumn.
This month in numbers
July 2026 was the 16th warmest on record for the state, with an average temperature of 26.06°C sitting 1.3°C above the 1961-1990 baseline. Heavy downpours also made it a remarkably wet period, as Tennessee recorded 148.08 mm of precipitation, which is 32.9 mm above normal, securing its 15th wettest July on record. Nights were disproportionately warm, with minimum temperatures averaging 20.83°C (+2.3°C), whereas daytime maximums reached 31.33°C, just 0.3°C above baseline. Globally, the land surface logged its 3rd warmest July on record, driven by widespread continental heat.
What changed
Over the 3-month May to July period, Tennessee logged an average temperature of 22.93°C (+0.8°C vs baseline), ranking 20th warmest on record, while total precipitation reached 408.17 mm (+66.9 mm above normal) to rank 14th wettest. This sustained wet spell kept local conditions milder than the global picture, where worldwide land temperatures recorded their 2nd warmest May to July period on record. Across the United States, Tennessee mirrored the broader national trend of elevated summer warmth, placing 3rd highest for monthly temperature anomalies within the NOAA Ohio Valley climate region group.
What’s driving change?
Summer climate dynamics in the region have been influenced by that drew muggy air up from the Gulf of Mexico, while effects amplified overnight temperatures in built-up areas. Furthermore, all of Tennessee's 4 wildfires this year have happened in the past month as localized drying occurred between heavy rain events, with active incidents tracked at Extreme Weather tracker. On a global scale, a moderate El Niño remains active in the tropical Pacific, with live conditions tracked at ENSO, though its direct atmospheric influence on Southeastern summer rainfall remains variable.
Looking ahead
Seasonal forecasts indicate that an intensifying El Niño, projected to reach very strong status by late autumn, could bring cooler and wetter than average conditions to the region as winter approaches.
Sources:
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – USUnited States
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance — US states & climate regions (tavg, pcp), plus GPCC (Snow, water-equivalent). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Tennessee
Köppen Cfa · TemperateTennessee has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfa: Humid subtropical), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 25.9°C, while January is the coldest at 3.5°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1453mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Tennessee
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Heatwave Days – Tennessee
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Tennessee
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Monthly Temperature – Tennessee
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Records – Tennessee
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Cfa · TemperateHow spring and autumn have shifted in Tennessee. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (14.0°C, from 1950–1979); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 22.6°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Feb (+3.0°C).
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Tennessee
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Statewide monthly temperature and precipitation (nClimDiv).
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Tennessee changing?
Tennessee is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Tennessee?
Tennessee has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfa: Humid subtropical), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 25.9°C, while January is the coldest at 3.5°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1453mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Where does the climate data for Tennessee come from?
Climate data for Tennessee comes from NOAA Climate at a Glance (temperature and precipitation), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Tennessee climate data cover?
The Tennessee climate profile covers Nashville, Memphis, Knoxville, Chattanooga and surrounding areas. Tennessee climate data from NOAA Climate at a Glance
How often is the Tennessee climate update refreshed?
The Tennessee climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Tennessee climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Tennessee climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.