Tennessee Climate – June 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Nashville, Memphis, Knoxville, Chattanooga, and Clarksville
This month in numbers
Tennessee experienced its 4th warmest April–June period on record, with an average temperature of 20.22°C, a significant 1.6°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. Maximum temperatures during this three-month span also ranked as the 5th highest on record, at 26.65°C, 1.3°C above average. Globally, land temperatures for April–June 2026 were the 2nd warmest on record, at 15.74°C, a full 1°C above the baseline. June 2026 in Tennessee saw an average temperature of 23.39°C, 0.5°C above average, ranking as the 33rd warmest June in 77 years of records.
What changed
The past three months have been notably warmer for Tennessee, with both average and maximum temperatures ranking in the top 5 historically. This regional warming aligns with the broader national and global trend, as global land temperatures for the same period were the 2nd warmest on record. While June itself was warmer than average, the anomaly was less pronounced than the preceding months. Precipitation in June was slightly above average at 114.81 mm, an increase of 13 mm, though the April–June period as a whole saw slightly below-average rainfall.
What’s driving change?
The persistent warmth in Tennessee is influenced by the ongoing weak El Niño, which is forecast to continue through the end of 2026. While El Niño's summer impacts on Tennessee can be nuanced, it typically brings a less active hurricane season to the Atlantic, which could mean less tropical rainfall for the region. However, the state has also experienced a cluster of wildfire events, with five recorded between late June and mid-July, representing 100% of the annual total for the past 12 months, an unusual concentration for the season. Additionally, one flood event occurred between May and July, also representing 100% of the annual total. These events highlight the region's vulnerability to extreme weather, even with varying precipitation patterns. You can track active extreme weather events at Extreme Weather tracker.
Looking ahead
The NOAA CPC forecast for July–September 2026 indicates that El Niño is expected to continue, with a 100% probability, suggesting a potential for warmer than normal temperatures in the region.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – USA
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance — US states & climate regions (tavg, pcp). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) or 1991–2020 (rainfall). See methodology.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Tennessee
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Tennessee – Monthly Temperature – All Years
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Records – Tennessee
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Cfa · TemperateHow spring and autumn have shifted in Tennessee. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (14.0°C, from 1950–1979); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 22.6°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Feb (+3.0°C).
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Rainfall & Precipitation
Rainfall & Rain Days – Totals
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
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Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Tennessee
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Tennessee changing?
Tennessee is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Tennessee come from?
Climate data for Tennessee comes from NOAA Climate at a Glance (temperature and precipitation), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Tennessee climate data cover?
The Tennessee climate profile covers Nashville, Memphis, Knoxville, Chattanooga and surrounding areas. Tennessee climate data from NOAA Climate at a Glance
How often is the Tennessee climate update refreshed?
The Tennessee climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.