South Dakota Climate
Top 5 Cities: Sioux Falls, Rapid City, Aberdeen, Brookings, and Watertown
This month in numbers
South Dakota experienced its 3rd warmest March on record in 2026, with an average temperature of 4.56°C, an anomaly of +4.8°C compared to the 1961–1990 baseline. Maximum temperatures were particularly notable, ranking as the 2nd highest on record for March at 12.89°C, a significant +7°C above average. The period of January to March 2026 also ranked as the 3rd warmest on record for average temperature and the 2nd warmest for maximum temperature. In contrast, precipitation for January to March 2026 was exceptionally low, ranking as the 76th driest out of 77 years on record, with only 7.62 mm of rain, a deficit of 9.9 mm.
What changed
The first three months of 2026 have been remarkably warm and dry for South Dakota. The state's 3-month average temperature anomaly of +4.77°C places it as the 6th warmest out of 234 regions globally for this period, highlighting a striking concentration of warmth across US states, with 9 of the top 10 warmest regions being in the US. This trend is significantly warmer than the national average for the US, which saw a +3.3°C anomaly in March. The persistent lack of precipitation has exacerbated drought conditions across the state, with 62.76% of the Missouri River basin affected by drought by the end of March, an increase from 50.75% at the start of the month.
What’s driving change?
The unusually warm and dry conditions in South Dakota are influenced by several factors. The current ENSO state is Neutral, with a strong forecast for El Niño to develop in the coming months, which typically brings warmer and drier conditions to the northern plains. South Dakota's warming trend is also consistent with the broader , where higher-latitude regions tend to warm faster than tropical areas. The region experienced a significant blizzard event from March 14-17, 2026, which brought heavy snow and strong winds, causing hazardous travel and road closures. However, despite this snowfall, the overall precipitation deficit persisted. Additionally, Red Flag Warnings were issued across parts of South Dakota on March 25, 2026, due to strong winds, very low humidity, and unseasonably warm temperatures, creating conditions favourable for rapid wildfire spread. These conditions contributed to the ongoing drought, with two drought events logged for South Dakota in the past 12 months, both occurring recently, representing 100% of the annual total and indicating an unusual concentration of drought activity. More information on extreme weather events can be found at Extreme Weather tracker.
Looking ahead
The NOAA CPC forecast indicates a strong likelihood of El Niño developing in the coming months, with a 79% chance for June-July-August, which typically suggests warmer and drier conditions for the region. More information on ENSO can be found at ENSO tracker.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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Data Sources
Data Sources for South Dakota
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in South Dakota changing?
South Dakota is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for South Dakota come from?
Climate data for South Dakota comes from NOAA Climate at a Glance (temperature and precipitation), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the South Dakota climate data cover?
The South Dakota climate profile covers Sioux Falls, Rapid City, Aberdeen, Brookings and surrounding areas. South Dakota climate data from NOAA Climate at a Glance
How often is the South Dakota climate update refreshed?
The South Dakota climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.