Hawaii Climate
Top 5 Cities: Honolulu, Hilo, Kailua, Pearl City, and Waipahu
This month in numbers
March 2026 saw Hawaii experience its 5th warmest March on record, with an average temperature of 18.33°C. However, the most striking numbers come from precipitation, with March 2026 recording the highest precipitation of any March in 36 years of records, reaching 565.66 mm. This contributed to the January–March 2026 period also ranking as the 1st wettest on record, with 300.06 mm of precipitation. Globally, March 2026 was the 2nd warmest March on record for land temperatures, with an anomaly of +1.2°C above the 1961–1990 baseline.
What changed
Hawaii has experienced a dramatic shift from drought conditions to record-breaking rainfall in March. Just a few months prior, 85% of Hawaii was experiencing abnormally dry or drought conditions. However, following two significant Kona low systems in March, that percentage has dropped to less than 30%. This intense rainfall has led to widespread flooding across the islands, with some areas receiving as much as 3,000% more rain than normal for the month. This contrasts with the national picture, where much of the western US saw drought increase during March.
What’s driving change?
The extreme rainfall in March was primarily driven by two consecutive Kona low systems, which are subtropical weather systems that draw moisture from the tropics, leading to slow-moving thunderstorms and torrential rains. These systems brought widespread heavy rain, strong thunderstorms, and damaging winds to the state from March 10th to March 24th. The ferocity of these Kona low storms, which brought over 2 trillion gallons of water to the islands, surprised even meteorologists. While the current ENSO state is Neutral, with an anomaly of -0.16°C, forecasts indicate a strong likelihood of El Niño developing by summer 2026 and continuing through the end of the year. El Niño typically brings drier conditions to Hawaii in the winter and can increase wildfire risk during the summer due to weaker trade winds and warmer ocean temperatures. Hawaii has also experienced an unusual concentration of extreme weather events recently, with two wildfire events and one flood event logged in April, representing 100% of the annual total for both types of events. More information on these events can be found at Extreme Weather tracker.
Looking ahead
Forecasters suggest that while the recent heavy rains have alleviated drought conditions, the anticipated El Niño development could lead to a very dry winter next year, increasing wildfire potential, particularly in leeward areas.
Sources:
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Hawaii
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Hawaii changing?
Hawaii is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Hawaii come from?
Climate data for Hawaii comes from NOAA Climate at a Glance (temperature and precipitation), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Hawaii climate data cover?
The Hawaii climate profile covers Honolulu, Hilo, Kailua, Pearl City and surrounding areas. Hawaii climate data from NOAA Climate at a Glance
How often is the Hawaii climate update refreshed?
The Hawaii climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.