Ukraine Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, Dnipro, and Lviv
Summary
While much of western Europe suffered through relentless heatwaves, Ukraine experienced a far more moderate July, with temperatures landing close to long-term averages despite localised thunderstorms and persistent soil dry spells in the south and east. Globally, the May to July period marked the 2nd warmest such span on record, but Ukraine stood in stark contrast to the continent's scorching west, with warmer conditions expected to return through late summer.
This month in numbers
The global picture remained exceptionally warm, as global land temperatures from May to July marked the 2nd warmest such period on record with a 1.5°C anomaly, while July itself ranked as the 3rd warmest globally at 1.6°C above baseline. In Ukraine, the July average temperature reached 20.38°C, which was 0.8°C above the 1961-1990 baseline and ranked 51st out of 87 years on record. This fell well short of the country's record July temperature of 24.45°C set in 2024.
What changed
Looking at the broader season, Ukraine's May to July average temperature reached 18.68°C, an anomaly of 1.1°C above baseline that ranked as the 27th warmest May to July on record. Ukraine's monthly anomaly was 1.49°C cooler than the European group average of 2.25°C above baseline, highlighting a dramatic atmospheric contrast across the continent. This follows a warm 2025, when the country recorded an average temperature of 10.39°C to mark its 5th warmest year on record, set against a long-term warming trend of 2.30°C above baseline.
What’s driving change?
The contrast across Europe was driven largely by , which locked over western Europe while steering cooler air masses and unstable frontal systems into eastern Europe. In southern and eastern Ukraine, worsened localised soil drought and agricultural strain. While the nation avoided the massive fire activity recorded further east in Russia, where 23 active wildfires are tracked on our live map at Extreme Weather tracker, moisture deficits remained a significant challenge for local crops.
Looking ahead
Seasonal forecasts indicate that above-average temperatures are likely to re-establish across eastern Europe through late summer and into autumn, threatening to prolong soil dryness across key agricultural zones.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Ukraine
Köppen Dfb · ContinentalUkraine has a continental climate (Köppen Dfb: Humid continental - warm summer), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 22.0°C, while January is the coldest at -1.9°C. Annual precipitation averages around 573mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Ukraine
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Ukraine
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Ukraine
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Ukraine
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Ukraine
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Dfb · ContinentalHow spring and autumn have shifted in Ukraine. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (7.7°C, from 1940–1969); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 26.8°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Mar (+4.6°C).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Ukraine
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Ukraine changing?
Ukraine is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Ukraine?
Ukraine has a continental climate (Köppen Dfb: Humid continental - warm summer), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 22.0°C, while January is the coldest at -1.9°C. Annual precipitation averages around 573mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Where does the climate data for Ukraine come from?
Climate data for Ukraine comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Ukraine climate data cover?
The Ukraine climate profile covers Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, Dnipro and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Ukraine
How often is the Ukraine climate update refreshed?
The Ukraine climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Ukraine climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Ukraine climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.