Tunisia Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Tunis, Sfax, Sousse, Ettadhamen, and Kairouan
Summary
Tunisia endured an extraordinarily hot month, recording its 2nd warmest July in records dating back to 1940. Average temperatures soared 4.5°C above the 1961 to 1990 baseline, giving the nation the highest single-month temperature anomaly anywhere on Earth. The punishing heat saw local maximum temperatures approach 50°C, triggering roughly 900 wildfires over a three-day period that scorched thousands of hectares of forest and farmland while forcing rotating power cuts. The extreme heat arrived as a moderate El Niño intensified in the tropical Pacific, a climate driver forecast to peak at Very Strong in autumn, with warm conditions likely to persist through late summer.
This month in numbers
In July 2026, Tunisia recorded a mean temperature of 32.85°C, which sits 4.5°C above the 1961 to 1990 baseline. That makes it the 2nd warmest July on record, trailing only the extreme heat of 2023 (33.61°C). Across all 232 countries and territories tracked globally, Tunisia ranked 1st for the largest single-month warmth anomaly. The wider three-month period from May to July 2026 averaged 28.13°C (+3.0°C anomaly), marking the 4th warmest such stretch in 87 years of record-keeping. Globally, land surface temperatures for the month sat 1.6°C above average, ranking 3rd highest on record, meaning Tunisia's regional heat spike was nearly three times as intense as the global land average.
What changed
The extreme heat of recent months represents a sharp escalation in Tunisia's warming trajectory. After a warm start to the year in February (+3.5°C anomaly) followed by moderate conditions in March and April, temperatures surged again through June (+3.0°C) and July (+4.5°C). Over the May to July 2026 period, Tunisia's 3.0°C anomaly placed it 15th highest among 232 global regions. This recent spike aligns with a long-term warming trend that has seen Tunisia warm by 1.97°C relative to its 1961 to 1990 baseline. The last five years account for the five warmest annual averages on record, led by 2024 at 21.7°C and 2025 ranking 5th at 21.13°C.
What’s driving change?
Multiple atmospheric and terrestrial mechanisms driven by climate change are compounding heat in North Africa. A major factor in hyper-arid and semi-arid terrain is , where parched soils lose the ability to cool the air through moisture evaporation, causing solar radiation to directly heat the lower atmosphere. Furthermore, , accelerating surface warming across inland North Africa compared to surrounding Mediterranean waters. On a broader scale, global conditions are influenced by ENSO, with the tropical Pacific currently in a moderate El Niño state (tracked live at ENSO). While Mediterranean teleconnections during El Niño have a modest historical reliability of around 45 percent, the phase historically favours drier and hotter summer conditions, amplifying heatwave intensity and wildfire risk across the region.
Looking ahead
Seasonal models indicate that elevated temperatures are likely to persist across North Africa into autumn, while the ongoing El Niño is forecast to peak at Very Strong strength between September and November with a 93 percent probability.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Tunisia
Köppen BWh · AridTunisia has a arid climate (Köppen BWh: Hot desert), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 31.1°C, while January is the coldest at 11.3°C. Annual precipitation averages around 205mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Tunisia
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Tunisia
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Tunisia
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Tunisia
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Tunisia
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm/cold + wet/dryKöppen BWh · AridTunisia has both a clear warm/cold cycle (±9.7°C) and a wet/dry cycle (11× wet:dry ratio). Both sides of the annual rhythm are shown below.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Jan (-10 mm, -37%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Tunisia
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Tunisia changing?
Tunisia is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Tunisia?
Tunisia has a arid climate (Köppen BWh: Hot desert), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 31.1°C, while January is the coldest at 11.3°C. Annual precipitation averages around 205mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Tunisia come from?
Climate data for Tunisia comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Tunisia climate data cover?
The Tunisia climate profile covers Tunis, Sfax, Sousse, Ettadhamen and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Tunisia
How often is the Tunisia climate update refreshed?
The Tunisia climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Tunisia climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Tunisia climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.