Trinidad and Tobago Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Port of Spain, San Fernando, Arima, Chaguanas, and San Juan
Summary
Trinidad and Tobago recorded its 3rd warmest July on record as unseasonable heat and mounting rainfall deficits tightened their grip across the twin islands. The unusually warm conditions come as a moderate El Niño in the tropical Pacific, tracked at ENSO, is forecast to peak at Very Strong with a 93% probability between September and November. Thick Saharan dust has choked off rain-bearing tropical waves, pushing portions of both islands toward drought watch and warning status, with drier and hotter conditions expected through the remainder of the wet season.
This month in numbers
The average temperature across Trinidad and Tobago reached 26.96°C in July 2026, standing 1.3°C above the 1961-1990 baseline. This made it the 3rd warmest July in 87 years of records, surpassed only by the heat of 2024. The recent elevated warmth builds on a sequence of hot months, pushing the May-July 2026 period to an average of 26.94°C. That three-month anomaly of 1.0°C above baseline marks the 5th warmest May-July stretch on record. Dryness also intensified earlier in the season, with May delivering just 37.8mm of rain, 74.6mm below average, ranking 129th wettest out of 136 years on record.
What changed
The regional heat reflects a persistent multi-month warming trend across the southern Caribbean. Over the May-July season, the country maintained a 1.0°C positive anomaly, aligning with an exceptionally warm global picture where global land temperatures reached their 3rd warmest July (+1.6°C anomaly) and 2nd warmest three-month period (+1.5°C anomaly) on record. For Trinidad and Tobago, this continues a long-term warming trend of +0.86°C against the mid-century baseline. The country's 2025 average temperature of 26.63°C was the 6th warmest year on record, maintaining high baseline heat following the all-time high set in 2024.
What’s driving change?
Tropical island climates are particularly sensitive to large-scale ocean dynamics, where surfaces under elevated global greenhouse gas concentrations. At the macro scale, the climate is being strongly influenced by ENSO, with a moderate El Niño currently active in the equatorial Pacific, detailed at ENSO. In the Caribbean basin, El Niño typically suppresses storm activity through stronger atmospheric wind shear while promoting drier, hotter conditions. Locally, this drying has been compounded by heavy plumes of Saharan dust sweeping across the Atlantic, which stabilise the upper atmosphere and interrupt rain-producing tropical waves, threatening water resources across both islands.
Looking ahead
With seasonal models projecting a 93% probability that El Niño will intensify to Very Strong levels between September and November, local meteorological authorities warn that below-normal rainfall and elevated temperatures are likely to persist, heightening drought risks heading into the next dry season.
Sources:
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Trinidad and Tobago
Köppen Am · TropicalTrinidad and Tobago has a tropical climate (Köppen Am: Tropical monsoon), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. September is typically the warmest month, averaging 27.5°C, while January is the coldest at 25.6°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1884mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Trinidad and Tobago
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Trinidad and Tobago
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Trinidad and Tobago
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Trinidad and Tobago
Latest month is provisional and may be revised by the data provider in the next update cycle.
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Trinidad and Tobago
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Wet / dry seasonsKöppen Am · TropicalTrinidad and Tobago doesn't have a warm/cold cycle - its monthly temperature range is only 1.5°C across the year - but it does have a strong wet/dry cycle (the wettest month gets 6× as much rain as the driest). So we track how the wet season has shifted instead.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Oct (+42 mm, +23%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
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Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Trinidad and Tobago
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Trinidad and Tobago changing?
Trinidad and Tobago is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Trinidad and Tobago?
Trinidad and Tobago has a tropical climate (Köppen Am: Tropical monsoon), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. September is typically the warmest month, averaging 27.5°C, while January is the coldest at 25.6°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1884mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Trinidad and Tobago come from?
Climate data for Trinidad and Tobago comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Trinidad and Tobago climate data cover?
The Trinidad and Tobago climate profile covers Port of Spain, San Fernando, Arima, Chaguanas and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Trinidad and Tobago
How often is the Trinidad and Tobago climate update refreshed?
The Trinidad and Tobago climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Trinidad and Tobago climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Trinidad and Tobago climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.