Tajikistan Climate
Top 5 Cities: Dushanbe, Khujand, Kulob, Qurghonteppa, and Istaravshan
This month in numbers
Tajikistan experienced its 2nd warmest April on record, with an average temperature of 2.32°C, a significant 2.9°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. The three-month period from February to April 2026 also ranked as the 5th warmest on record, with an anomaly of +2.1°C. Globally, April 2026 was the 2nd warmest April for land temperatures, and the February–April period was the 2nd warmest for global land temperatures.
What changed
The consistent warmth seen in April extends a trend observed throughout the February–April 2026 season, which was notably warmer than average. This regional warming aligns with a broader global pattern, as global land temperatures also ranked among the warmest on record for both the single month and the three-month period. Tajikistan's long-term trend shows a warming of +1.58°C compared to the 1961–1990 baseline, with 2025 being the 4th warmest year on record.
What’s driving change?
The significant warming in Tajikistan is influenced by several factors, including , as mountains cover 93% of the country and are warming faster than lowlands. Intensive glacier melt is a critical environmental issue, with the region's temperature increase occurring twice as fast as the global average, and glacier area having decreased by about 30% over the past 70–100 years. The current ENSO state is Neutral, with a +0.11°C anomaly, as tracked on ENSO tracker. However, the forecast indicates a likely transition to El Niño in the coming months. Tajikistan has also experienced recent extreme weather, with a flood event in Kulob City on May 1, 2026, triggered by heavy rainfall, resulting in fatalities, injuries, and significant damage to homes and infrastructure. This flood represents 100% of the annual total for such events in the past 12 months, an unusual concentration. A drought event is also ongoing since October 2024, representing 100% of the annual total for droughts in the past 12 months, which is also an unusual concentration. More information on these events can be found at Extreme Weather tracker.
Looking ahead
The NOAA CPC forecast suggests a 61% probability of El Niño developing by May–July, increasing to 79% for June–August and 87% for July–September, which typically brings more rain to Central Asia by enhancing moisture transport and intensifying updrafts.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Tajikistan
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Tajikistan changing?
Tajikistan is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Tajikistan come from?
Climate data for Tajikistan comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Tajikistan climate data cover?
The Tajikistan climate profile covers Dushanbe, Khujand, Kulob, Qurghonteppa and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Tajikistan
How often is the Tajikistan climate update refreshed?
The Tajikistan climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.