Sri Lanka Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Colombo, Kandy, Galle, Jaffna, and Negombo
Summary
Sri Lanka recorded its warmest July on record in 2026, as average temperatures reached 28.58°C, sitting 1.4°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. The island surpassed its previous monthly heat records in continuous data going back to 1940, driven by suppressed monsoon rainfall across much of the country. A moderate El Niño forecast to peak at Very Strong in Oct-Dec added momentum to tropical heat, while globally land temperatures ranked as the 3rd warmest July on record. Track evolving Pacific conditions at ENSO, with heavy autumn rainfall predicted to arrive later in the year.
This month in numbers
July 2026 produced an island-wide average temperature of 28.58°C, which sits 1.4°C above the 1961–1990 average. This ranked 1st out of 87 years of data dating back to 1940, establishing a new all-time heat record for the month. On the global stage, land temperatures averaged 15.8°C with a +1.6°C anomaly, marking the 3rd warmest July on record worldwide.
What changed
Looking at the broader season, the May–July 2026 average temperature reached 28.15°C, representing an anomaly of +0.8°C compared to the baseline and ranking 12th highest in the 87-year historical series. Across the 23 member nations of the Asia regional group, the average monthly anomaly stood at +1.57°C, placing Sri Lanka slightly cooler than the continental average during this period of elevated tropical warmth. Globally, the May–July period ranked 2nd warmest on record with a land temperature average of 14.34°C.
What’s driving change?
The primary forces behind Sri Lanka's record heat involve and the influence of ENSO. A moderate El Niño, tracked at ENSO with a +0.98°C relative anomaly, altered atmospheric flow across the Indian Ocean. In Sri Lanka, El Niño historically reduces Southwest Monsoon rainfall (~60% historical reliability), suppressing typical cloud cover and allowing solar radiation to heat the ground faster than surrounding ocean waters.
Looking ahead
Seasonal forecasts indicate an 81% probability that El Niño will intensify to Very Strong status during October-December, which multi-model outlooks suggest will shift local weather patterns toward heavier seasonal rainfall into late autumn.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Sri Lanka
Köppen Af · TropicalSri Lanka has a tropical climate (Köppen Af: Tropical rainforest), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. June is typically the warmest month, averaging 28.1°C, while January is the coldest at 25.0°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1721mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Sri Lanka
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Sri Lanka
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Sri Lanka
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Sri Lanka
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Sri Lanka
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Wet / dry seasonsKöppen Af · TropicalSri Lanka doesn't have a warm/cold cycle - its monthly temperature range is only 3.1°C across the year - but it does have a strong wet/dry cycle (the wettest month gets 5× as much rain as the driest). So we track how the wet season has shifted instead.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: May (+69 mm, +53%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Climate Systems
Loading ENSO tracker…
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Sri Lanka
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Sri Lanka changing?
Sri Lanka is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Sri Lanka?
Sri Lanka has a tropical climate (Köppen Af: Tropical rainforest), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. June is typically the warmest month, averaging 28.1°C, while January is the coldest at 25.0°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1721mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Sri Lanka come from?
Climate data for Sri Lanka comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Sri Lanka climate data cover?
The Sri Lanka climate profile covers Colombo, Kandy, Galle, Jaffna and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Sri Lanka
How often is the Sri Lanka climate update refreshed?
The Sri Lanka climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Sri Lanka climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Sri Lanka climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.