Rwanda Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Kigali, Butare, Gitarama, Ruhengeri, and Gisenyi
Summary
July 2026 brought exceptionally warm conditions across Rwanda, delivering the country's 2nd warmest July on record with temperatures averaging 21.35°C. This capped off a remarkably mild 3-month period that ranked 3rd highest since observations began in 1940, continuing a long-term warming trajectory that is reshaping the climate across the East African highlands, with warmer than average conditions forecast to persist over coming months.
This month in numbers
July 2026 averaged 21.35°C across Rwanda, representing a 2.4°C anomaly above the 1961-1990 baseline. It stands as the 2nd warmest month of July on record in 87 years of measurements, surpassed only by the all-time record set in 2024 at 21.48°C. Globally, land temperatures for the month reached 15.8°C, which was 1.6°C above average and ranked 3rd highest overall.
What changed
Over the May-July 2026 season, average temperatures reached 20.77°C, marking a 2.1°C anomaly and the 3rd warmest May-July period on record for Rwanda. This aligned with broader planetary trends, as global land temperatures for the same 3-month span were the 2nd warmest ever recorded at 14.34°C (+1.5°C above baseline). Over the longer term, Rwanda has warmed by 1.53°C compared to its 1961-1990 average, with four of its top five warmest years occurring in the 2020s.
What’s driving change?
Rwanda's accelerated thermal rise is driven in part by , a mechanism that causes tropical mountain regions and high plateaus to heat faster as the surrounding atmosphere warms and dries. Furthermore, because , interior East Africa experiences pronounced temperature shifts compared to coastal regions. Tropical climate patterns and regional ENSO variability also influence atmospheric circulation across the Rift Valley, enhancing dry-season heating and elevating background temperatures.
Looking ahead
Regional seasonal outlooks from climate centres indicate a high probability of above-normal temperatures persisting across Rwanda over the coming months as dry conditions transition into the late-year rains.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Rwanda
Köppen Aw · TropicalRwanda has a tropical climate (Köppen Aw: Tropical savanna (dry winter)), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. August is typically the warmest month, averaging 20.8°C, while November is the coldest at 19.5°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1206mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Rwanda
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Rwanda
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Rwanda
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Rwanda
Latest month is provisional and may be revised by the data provider in the next update cycle.
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Rwanda
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Wet / dry seasonsKöppen Cwb · TemperateRwanda doesn't have a warm/cold cycle - its monthly temperature range is only 1.7°C across the year - but it does have a strong wet/dry cycle (the wettest month gets 16× as much rain as the driest). So we track how the wet season has shifted instead.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Jan (+26 mm, +35%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Rwanda
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Rwanda changing?
Rwanda is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Rwanda?
Rwanda has a tropical climate (Köppen Aw: Tropical savanna (dry winter)), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. August is typically the warmest month, averaging 20.8°C, while November is the coldest at 19.5°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1206mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Rwanda come from?
Climate data for Rwanda comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Rwanda climate data cover?
The Rwanda climate profile covers Kigali, Butare, Gitarama, Ruhengeri and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Rwanda
How often is the Rwanda climate update refreshed?
The Rwanda climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Rwanda climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Rwanda climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.