Portugal Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Lisbon, Porto, Braga, Coimbra, and Funchal
Summary
Portugal experienced an exceptionally scorching early summer, culminating in its 2nd warmest May-July period since records began in 1940. A series of intense heatwaves pushed interior temperatures up to 44°C, prompting official red warnings and triggering severe wildfires across northern and central districts. The persistent heat comes alongside a moderate El Niño in the tropical Pacific, which is intensifying and carries a 93% probability of reaching Very Strong status between September and November (ENSO). Hotter and drier conditions are expected to persist across the region into late summer.
This month in numbers
Leading the seasonal context, May-July 2026 recorded an average temperature of 21.17°C, an anomaly of +2.5°C above the 1961-1990 baseline that stands as the 2nd highest on record behind only 2022. In July 2026 specifically, Portugal logged a mean temperature of 23.81°C, placing it +2.2°C above average and marking the 7th warmest on record for the month. Globally, land temperatures for May-July averaged 14.34°C (+1.5°C anomaly, 2nd warmest on record), while global land temperatures in July reached 15.8°C (+1.6°C anomaly, 3rd warmest on record).
What changed
The remarkable 3-month warmth reflects consecutive hot periods, including an April that ran +3.5°C above average and a June at +3.2°C above baseline. On an annual scale, Portugal continues its long-term warming trajectory of +1.25°C above the 1961-1990 baseline, with 2025 standing as the 4th warmest year on record at 16.13°C. In cross-region rankings, Portugal ranked 29th out of 232 countries and territories for its 3-month temperature anomaly (+2.55°C), part of a broad European pattern where 6 of the top 10 warmest 3-month anomalies worldwide occurred in European nations.
What’s driving change?
The extreme summer temperatures across Portugal were primarily caused by , where persistent high-pressure systems trapped blistering air masses over the Iberian Peninsula. This effect was further intensified by , as parched soils could no longer evaporate moisture to cool the surrounding air. While a moderate El Niño active in the Pacific contributes to global warmth via ENSO, its direct teleconnection with Mediterranean summer climate carries a modest historical reliability of around 45%, leaving local atmospheric patterns as the dominant driver.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Portugal
Köppen Csa · TemperatePortugal has a temperate climate (Köppen Csa: Mediterranean - hot summer), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. August is typically the warmest month, averaging 23.1°C, while January is the coldest at 9.2°C. Annual precipitation averages around 852mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Portugal
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Portugal
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Portugal
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Portugal
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Portugal
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm/cold + wet/dryKöppen Csa · TemperatePortugal has both a clear warm/cold cycle (±7.0°C) and a wet/dry cycle (11× wet:dry ratio). Both sides of the annual rhythm are shown below.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Mar (+19 mm, +21%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Portugal
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Portugal changing?
Portugal is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Portugal?
Portugal has a temperate climate (Köppen Csa: Mediterranean - hot summer), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. August is typically the warmest month, averaging 23.1°C, while January is the coldest at 9.2°C. Annual precipitation averages around 852mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Portugal come from?
Climate data for Portugal comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Portugal climate data cover?
The Portugal climate profile covers Lisbon, Porto, Braga, Coimbra and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Portugal
How often is the Portugal climate update refreshed?
The Portugal climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Portugal climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Portugal climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.