Philippines Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Manila, Quezon City, Davao, Cebu, and Caloocan
Summary
The Philippines experienced exceptional warmth during July 2026, recording its 2nd warmest such month on record. This capped a May to July period that was also the 2nd warmest three-month stretch in 87 years of records. The persistent warmth occurred alongside volatile atmospheric conditions, as Tropical Cyclone Peilou tracked near the archipelago and enhanced monsoon rainfall. Regional ocean-atmosphere patterns are currently influenced by a moderate El Niño, which is intensifying and carries a 93% probability of peaking at Very Strong strength between September and November. Globally, land surface temperatures reached their 3rd highest level for the month, demonstrating how planetary warming is reinforcing regional extremes, with heightened tropical storm risks expected over the coming months.
This month in numbers
National temperatures averaged 26.88°C in July 2026, standing +1.1°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. This was the 2nd warmest July in 87 years of monitoring, trailing only the record established in 2021. Over the broader three-month May to July season, average temperatures reached 27.38°C (+1.3°C anomaly), which also ranked 2nd highest on record behind 2024. Globally, land surface temperatures for the month averaged 15.8°C, an anomaly of +1.6°C that marked the 3rd warmest July on record. The global three-month average for May to July reached 14.34°C (+1.5°C anomaly), standing as the 2nd highest on record.
What changed
The archipelago has sustained above-average warmth throughout 2026, with consecutive monthly anomalies exceeding baseline averages by up to +1.3°C since late spring. On an annual scale, the country recorded an average temperature of 26.3°C in 2025, its 6th warmest year on record, reflecting a long-term warming trend of +1.05°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. While 2024 remains the warmest full year on record at 26.71°C, recent monthly figures demonstrate continued momentum. Within the broader Asian continent, tracked at Asia, the Philippines ran 0.44°C cooler than the continental monthly anomaly, where land areas averaged +1.57°C above baseline.
What’s driving change?
The primary driver behind the region's elevated temperatures and altered rainfall patterns is ENSO, with the tropical Pacific currently in a moderate El Niño state. Historically, El Niño brings warmer conditions and delayed or disrupted rainfall across Maritime Southeast Asia with roughly 80% reliability, as tracked at ENSO. This tropical climate oscillation interacts with , altering atmospheric circulation across the Western Pacific and driving intense convective storms alongside periods of suppressed rainfall. Tropical Cyclone Peilou swirled near the archipelago during this period, bringing heavy rains to northern provinces. All of the Philippines' 1 tropical cyclone this year happened in the past month. Tropical Cyclone Peilou is monitored on our live map at Extreme Weather tracker.
Looking ahead
Seasonal forecasts indicate that the moderate El Niño will continue to intensify over the coming months, with a 93% probability of reaching Very Strong intensity between September and November, likely prolonging unseasonably high temperatures and elevated storm risks into autumn.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Philippines
Köppen Af · TropicalPhilippines has a tropical climate (Köppen Af: Tropical rainforest), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. May is typically the warmest month, averaging 27.5°C, while January is the coldest at 25.1°C. Annual precipitation averages around 2545mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Philippines
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Philippines
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Philippines
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Philippines
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Philippines
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Wet / dry seasonsKöppen Af · TropicalPhilippines doesn't have a warm/cold cycle - its monthly temperature range is only 2.5°C across the year - but it does have a strong wet/dry cycle (the wettest month gets 3× as much rain as the driest). So we track how the wet season has shifted instead.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Jan (+47 mm, +30%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Climate Systems
Loading ENSO tracker…
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Philippines
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Philippines changing?
Philippines is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Philippines?
Philippines has a tropical climate (Köppen Af: Tropical rainforest), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. May is typically the warmest month, averaging 27.5°C, while January is the coldest at 25.1°C. Annual precipitation averages around 2545mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Philippines come from?
Climate data for Philippines comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Philippines climate data cover?
The Philippines climate profile covers Manila, Quezon City, Davao, Cebu and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Philippines
How often is the Philippines climate update refreshed?
The Philippines climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Philippines climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Philippines climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.