Paraguay Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Asunción, Ciudad del Este, San Lorenzo, Luque, and Capiatá
Summary
Paraguay experienced a sharp thermal reversal during mid-winter, as a noticeably warm July pushed monthly temperatures 2.3°C above the long-term baseline following cooler conditions in May and June. The heat comes as tropical Pacific waters continue to warm under a moderate El Niño, which is forecast to intensify and carries a 93% probability of reaching Very Strong status between September and November. With the evolving equatorial pattern already influencing climate dynamics across South America, the official ENSO state and outlook can be monitored at ENSO, with wetter conditions and heightened river flood risks expected as the region moves deeper into spring.
This month in numbers
In July 2026, Paraguay recorded an average temperature of 20.96°C, representing an anomaly of +2.3°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. This made it the 9th warmest July in 87 years of record-keeping since 1940. The regional heat aligned with broader global trends, as global land temperatures for the month reached 15.8°C (+1.6°C above baseline), ranking as the 3rd warmest July recorded globally.
What changed
The sharp mid-winter warm spell followed a cooler start to the season, resulting in a three-month average temperature of 19.1°C from May to July 2026 (-0.1°C anomaly), which ranked 58th warmest out of 87 years. This placed Paraguay 230th out of 232 tracked global regions for three-month temperature anomaly, making it the 3rd coolest area on Earth over that window. In contrast, global land temperatures over May to July marked the 2nd warmest such period on record (+1.5°C anomaly). On an annual scale, 2025 was the 21st warmest year on record at 24.03°C, continuing Paraguay's long-term warming trend of +1.06°C since the mid-20th century.
What’s driving change?
The dominant climate driver affecting the region is ENSO, as a moderate El Niño continues to strengthen in the tropical Pacific. Historically, this atmospheric cycle influences weather patterns across southern South America by directing warmer air mass movements and increasing moisture transport into the La Plata basin. These fluctuations take place against the backdrop of long-term climate change, where waters, amplifying temperature swings during warm winter phases.
Looking ahead
Seasonal forecasts indicate that as the current climate pattern strengthens toward a Very Strong threshold by late spring, Paraguay faces an increased likelihood of above-normal rainfall and associated flooding over the coming months.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Paraguay
Köppen Aw · TropicalParaguay has a tropical climate (Köppen Aw: Tropical savanna (dry winter)), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. January is typically the warmest month, averaging 28.8°C, while June is the coldest at 19.0°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1140mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Paraguay
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Paraguay
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Paraguay
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Paraguay
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Paraguay
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm/cold + wet/dryKöppen Aw · TropicalParaguay has both a clear warm/cold cycle (±4.0°C) and a wet/dry cycle (4× wet:dry ratio). Both sides of the annual rhythm are shown below.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Jun (-44 mm, -53%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Paraguay
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Paraguay changing?
Paraguay is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Paraguay?
Paraguay has a tropical climate (Köppen Aw: Tropical savanna (dry winter)), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. January is typically the warmest month, averaging 28.8°C, while June is the coldest at 19.0°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1140mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Paraguay come from?
Climate data for Paraguay comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Paraguay climate data cover?
The Paraguay climate profile covers Asunción, Ciudad del Este, San Lorenzo, Luque and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Paraguay
How often is the Paraguay climate update refreshed?
The Paraguay climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Paraguay climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Paraguay climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.