Papua New Guinea Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Port Moresby, Lae, Arawa, Mount Hagen, and Popondetta
Summary
Papua New Guinea recorded an average temperature of 22.53°C in July 2026, sitting 0.5°C above the 1961-1990 baseline to rank 28th warmest in 87 years of records. While local temperature anomalies remained modest compared to extreme warming elsewhere, the country is facing growing agricultural stress and drought alerts across several provinces. The primary driver is a moderate El Niño currently intensifying in the Pacific Ocean, tracked at ENSO, which is forecast to peak at Very Strong with a 93% probability in the September to November period. With rainfall deficits mounting and highland frosts threatening food security, severe dry conditions are expected to deepen in the months ahead.
This month in numbers
The country recorded an average temperature of 22.53°C during July 2026, sitting 0.5°C above the 1961-1990 baseline to rank 28th warmest in 87 years of records. On a global scale, Papua New Guinea ranked 224th out of 232 tracked regions for 1-month temperature anomaly, placing it among the bottom 10 relative anomalies worldwide. By comparison, global land temperatures reached 15.8°C with a +1.6°C anomaly, marking the 3rd warmest July on record globally.
What changed
Taking a broader seasonal view, the three-month period from May to July 2026 averaged 23.15°C, representing a +0.7°C anomaly and the 16th warmest such stretch on record. This coincided with a historic global signal, as global land temperatures over the same three months averaged 14.34°C (+1.5°C anomaly), the 2nd warmest May-July period on record globally. Over the longer term, Papua New Guinea maintains an annual warming trend of +1.12°C compared to the 1961-1990 baseline, following 2025 as the 3rd warmest full year on record at 24.1°C.
What’s driving change?
The primary atmospheric engine shaping conditions across the region is ENSO, alongside broader . The Pacific is currently in a moderate El Niño phase, which historically brings drier and warmer conditions to Maritime Southeast Asia with roughly 80% reliability. Higher atmospheric pressure suppresses cloud formation over the country, leading to reduced rainfall and prolonged dry spells. At higher elevations, clear night skies accelerate thermal radiation, increasing the risk of damaging highland frosts that threaten staple crops even as daytime temperatures remain elevated.
Looking ahead
NOAA seasonal forecasts indicate a 100% probability of El Niño persisting through the remainder of the year, with a 93% chance of reaching Very Strong intensity in the September to November window, signalling protracted drought conditions and heightened food security risks for Papua New Guinea into early 2027.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Papua New Guinea
Köppen Af · TropicalPapua New Guinea has a tropical climate (Köppen Af: Tropical rainforest), with little variation in temperature or rainfall across the year. January is typically the warmest month, averaging 24.5°C, while July is the coldest at 23.2°C. Annual precipitation averages around 3107mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Papua New Guinea
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Papua New Guinea
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Papua New Guinea
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Papua New Guinea
Latest month is provisional and may be revised by the data provider in the next update cycle.
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Papua New Guinea
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Weakly seasonalKöppen Af · TropicalPapua New Guinea is weakly seasonal - temperature barely changes across the year (1.1°C range) and rainfall is fairly even. The clearest climate signal here is overall warming: monthly temperature has risen in every month.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Jan (+1.6°C). The warmest month has shifted from Dec to Jan.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Papua New Guinea
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Papua New Guinea changing?
Papua New Guinea is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Papua New Guinea?
Papua New Guinea has a tropical climate (Köppen Af: Tropical rainforest), with little variation in temperature or rainfall across the year. January is typically the warmest month, averaging 24.5°C, while July is the coldest at 23.2°C. Annual precipitation averages around 3107mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Where does the climate data for Papua New Guinea come from?
Climate data for Papua New Guinea comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Papua New Guinea climate data cover?
The Papua New Guinea climate profile covers Port Moresby, Lae, Arawa, Mount Hagen and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Papua New Guinea
How often is the Papua New Guinea climate update refreshed?
The Papua New Guinea climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Papua New Guinea climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Papua New Guinea climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.