Papua New Guinea Climate
Top 5 Cities: Port Moresby, Lae, Arawa, Mount Hagen, and Popondetta
This month in numbers
Papua New Guinea experienced its 8th warmest April on record, with an average temperature of 24.04°C, marking an anomaly of +1°C compared to the 1961–1990 baseline. Globally, April 2026 was the 2nd warmest on record for land temperatures, with an anomaly of +1.1°C. The three-month period from February to April 2026 was the 4th warmest on record for Papua New Guinea, with an average temperature of 24.36°C, an anomaly of +1.3°C.
What changed
The recent three-month period (February–April 2026) in Papua New Guinea was notably warmer, ranking as the 4th warmest such period in 86 years of records. This trend aligns with the broader global picture, as global land temperatures for the same period also ranked as the 2nd warmest on record. Papua New Guinea's April anomaly of +1.04°C places it 171st out of 234 regions for the latest month's temperature anomaly, indicating that while it was warmer than average, other regions experienced more extreme anomalies.
What’s driving change?
The warming trend in Papua New Guinea is influenced by the broader global warming trend, with land warming faster than ocean. The current ENSO state is Neutral, with a +0.11°C anomaly in the NOAA ONI 3-month (FMA 2026). However, there is a strong forecast for El Niño to develop from May-July 2026 onwards, with probabilities reaching 98% by August-October. El Niño typically brings warmer and drier conditions to Maritime Southeast Asia, including Papua New Guinea, increasing the risk of drought and frost, and impacting agriculture and water availability.
In April 2026, Tropical Cyclone Maila brought heavy rainfall, floods, and landslides to eastern Papua New Guinea, particularly in Bougainville and East New Britain, resulting in at least 11 fatalities. Several provinces, including Jiwaka, Chimbu, Enga, and Western Highlands, have been under drought alert or watch since February 2026, with Madang recording its 4th driest February on record. You can track current extreme weather events at Extreme Weather tracker.
Looking ahead
The strong forecast for an El Niño development in the coming months suggests a heightened risk of warmer and drier conditions for Papua New Guinea, potentially leading to increased drought and frost events.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
Loading climate data...
Data Sources
Data Sources for Papua New Guinea
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Papua New Guinea changing?
Papua New Guinea is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Papua New Guinea come from?
Climate data for Papua New Guinea comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Papua New Guinea climate data cover?
The Papua New Guinea climate profile covers Port Moresby, Lae, Arawa, Mount Hagen and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Papua New Guinea
How often is the Papua New Guinea climate update refreshed?
The Papua New Guinea climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.