Pakistan Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad, Faisalabad, and Rawalpindi
Summary
July 2026 brought severe atmospheric pressure to Pakistan, marking the country's 5th warmest month of that name on record with an average temperature of 29.97°C (+1.5°C above the 1961–1990 baseline). Alongside intense seasonal heat across southern districts, torrential monsoon downpours and flash floods triggered widespread destruction, causing over 100 fatalities nationwide, predominantly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab. The shifting climate pattern comes as the tropical Pacific experiences a moderate El Niño forecast to peak at Very Strong strength between September and November, increasing the volatility of global monsoon systems. Further rainfall and localized flooding remain likely across northern and eastern catchment areas through late summer.
This month in numbers
The average temperature in Pakistan reached 29.97°C during July 2026, sitting 1.5°C above the long-term baseline to rank as the country's 5th warmest on record for the month. This contributed to a three-month May to July average of 29.21°C (+1.3°C anomaly), which ranked 7th highest in 87 years of records. Globally, the land surface temperature reached 15.8°C (+1.6°C anomaly), marking the 3rd warmest July on record. Over the preceding full year of 2025, Pakistan recorded its warmest year on record with an average temperature of 21.49°C, reflecting a long-term warming trend of +1.15°C since 1961.
What changed
The three-month period from May to July saw persistent warmth across South Asia, with Pakistan recording a mean temperature anomaly of +1.26°C above baseline. Nationally, this follows an unusually hot start to the year in which February and March experienced anomalies of +3.8°C and +2.9°C respectively. Across the broader Asia continent, the monthly temperature anomaly reached +1.57°C, leaving Pakistan slightly cooler than its regional group average. Globally, land surface temperatures over the same three-month window registered 1.5°C above average, standing as the 2nd warmest May to July period in history behind 2024.
What’s driving change?
The elevated temperatures and volatile rainfall patterns are linked to ongoing and , where parched terrain across southern provinces prevents evaporative cooling and drives up daytime heat. Atmospheric instability was further compounded by monsoon moisture currents colliding with westerly weather systems, triggering severe localized downpours. On a global scale, atmospheric conditions are being shaped by ENSO in the tropical Pacific, where a moderate El Niño is active with a Relative Niño Index anomaly of +0.98°C. While El Niño historically aligns with weaker overall summer precipitation across South Asia, individual storm events have remained intense. Track live ENSO developments on our map at ENSO.
Looking ahead
According to official seasonal forecasts, the ongoing El Niño is 93% probable to peak at Very Strong strength between September and November, which may continue to alter atmospheric circulation and rainfall distribution across South Asia over the coming months.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Pakistan
Köppen BWh · AridPakistan has a arid climate (Köppen BWh: Hot desert), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. June is typically the warmest month, averaging 29.6°C, while January is the coldest at 8.9°C. Annual precipitation averages around 336mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Pakistan
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Pakistan
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Pakistan
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Pakistan
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Pakistan
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm/cold + wet/dryKöppen BSh · AridPakistan has both a clear warm/cold cycle (±10.6°C) and a wet/dry cycle (12× wet:dry ratio). Both sides of the annual rhythm are shown below.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Jul (+22 mm, +39%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Pakistan
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Pakistan changing?
Pakistan is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Pakistan?
Pakistan has a arid climate (Köppen BWh: Hot desert), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. June is typically the warmest month, averaging 29.6°C, while January is the coldest at 8.9°C. Annual precipitation averages around 336mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Pakistan come from?
Climate data for Pakistan comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Pakistan climate data cover?
The Pakistan climate profile covers Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad, Faisalabad and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Pakistan
How often is the Pakistan climate update refreshed?
The Pakistan climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Pakistan climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Pakistan climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.