New Caledonia Climate – September 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Nouméa, Mont-Dore, Dumbéa, Paita, and Lifou
Summary
New Caledonia recorded a relatively cool month, averaging 19.46°C in September with an anomaly 0.3°C below the 1961-1990 baseline, ranking as the 64th warmest in 87 years of records. While global land temperatures marked their 2nd warmest September on record, the territory ranked among the five coolest regions worldwide relative to historic averages. This localized cooling reflects a strong El Niño in the tropical Pacific, which is forecast with 100% probability to peak at Very Strong during September to November, with drier conditions expected to persist in the coming months.
This month in numbers
September overall reached an average temperature of 19.46°C, placing 64th highest since records began in 1940. Over the 3-month period from July to September, mean temperatures averaged 19.32°C, registering a 0°C anomaly vs the 1961-1990 baseline and ranking as the 50th warmest stretch on record. Globally, land temperatures ran far higher, with September reaching 13.63°C (a 1.9°C anomaly, 2nd warmest on record) and the July-September window averaging 15.04°C (a 1.8°C anomaly, 3rd warmest on record).
What changed
The July to September quarter maintained near-average baseline temperatures across the archipelago. In global comparison across 232 tracked countries and territories, New Caledonia featured among the coolest anomalies, ranking as the 5th coolest region in September and the 4th coolest over the 3-month window. Within its regional group in Oceania (Oceania), New Caledonia recorded the lowest monthly temperature anomaly, running 0.71°C below the regional mean.
What’s driving change?
The main driver behind the regional suppression of temperatures is the active ENSO climate pattern in the equatorial Pacific, tracked live at ENSO. NOAA data classifies the current state as a strong El Niño with a Relative Niño Index anomaly of +1.69°C. Historically, El Niño phase interactions tend to suppress late-winter and early-spring temperatures across New Caledonia, accounting for roughly 28% of the territory's seasonal thermal variability alongside broader dynamics across the Southern Hemisphere.
Looking ahead
Given a 100% probability of El Niño reaching Very Strong status over the next 1 to 3 months, seasonal outlooks anticipate reduced rainfall and elevated dry risk across New Caledonia.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Long-Term Trends
Climate Insights – New Caledonia
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature anomalies.
Climate History
35 of 35 events
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – New Caledonia
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Climate Map – Global
Source: Copernicus ERA5 (countries) · NOAA Climate at a Glance (continents, US states & climate regions) · Met Office (UK) · GPCC (rainfall, snow) · World Bank CCKP (frost). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – New Caledonia
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – New Caledonia
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – New Caledonia
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Typical Climate – New Caledonia
Köppen Aw · TropicalNew Caledonia has a tropical climate (Köppen Aw: Tropical savanna (dry winter)), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. February is typically the warmest month, averaging 25.6°C, while August is the coldest at 19.8°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1346mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Shifting Seasons
Warm/cold + wet/dryKöppen Af · TropicalNew Caledonia has both a clear warm/cold cycle (±2.9°C) and a wet/dry cycle (4× wet:dry ratio). Both sides of the annual rhythm are shown below.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Mar (-109 mm, -37%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Extreme Weather
Alerts & Disasters - New Caledonia
GDACS alerts in New Caledonia right now, graded Red (Major), Orange (Severe) or Green (Moderate), and the long-term record of weather and climate disasters.
Live Alerts
Alerts, Last 12 Months
Major
0
None since 2021
Severe
0
None since 2021
Moderate
2
Disasters: EM-DAT, CRED / UCLouvain, via Our World in Data - 10+ deaths, 100+ people affected, or a declared emergency or call for international help. Alerts: GDACS.
Climate Drivers
Climate Drivers - New Caledonia
The natural climate patterns that measurably shape seasonal temperature or rainfall in New Caledonia, from this site’s own data since 1950 - long-term trends removed, and ENSO’s share taken out before scoring the others, so each is credited only for what it adds.
The tropical Pacific’s warm and cool swings - the biggest natural driver of year-to-year climate.
Now: El Niño (strong) · RONI +1.7°C (Jul-Sep 2026)
Forecast - 100% very strong at peak, Sep-Nov, then neutral by Apr-Jun 2027 (NOAA). La Niña from Oct 2027 in SNU’s AI model.
Strongest in Aug-Oct temperature: El Niño tends to bring cooler conditions here, La Niña the reverse (about 28% of year-to-year variation).
ENSO TrackerEmissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for New Caledonia
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
Live and archived alerts for cyclones, floods, droughts and wildfires, graded Red (major), Orange (severe) or Green (moderate). UN OCHA and European Commission JRC.
Weather and climate disasters (10+ deaths, 100+ people affected, or a declared emergency or call for international help). CRED / UCLouvain, via Our World in Data.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in New Caledonia changing?
New Caledonia is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in New Caledonia?
New Caledonia has a tropical climate (Köppen Aw: Tropical savanna (dry winter)), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. February is typically the warmest month, averaging 25.6°C, while August is the coldest at 19.8°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1346mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Which climate drivers affect the weather in New Caledonia?
Measured from seasonal temperature and rainfall in New Caledonia since 1950, with the long-term warming trend removed (and ENSO's own share removed before scoring the other drivers), the climate drivers with a clear effect here are: El Niño / La Niña (ENSO) - moderate, strongest in Aug-Oct temperature, which El Niño tends to make cooler here (La Niña the reverse), about 28% of year-to-year variation. Their current state is shown in the Climate Drivers section of this page.
Where does the climate data for New Caledonia come from?
Climate data for New Caledonia comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the New Caledonia climate data cover?
The New Caledonia climate profile covers Nouméa, Mont-Dore, Dumbéa, Paita and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for New Caledonia
How often is the New Caledonia climate update refreshed?
The New Caledonia climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the New Caledonia climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the New Caledonia climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.
What major climate events has New Caledonia experienced?
Major climate events in New Caledonia include Cyclone Erica, 2003; The 1973-74 La Niña; The 1988-89 La Niña; The 1999-2001 La Niña; Global heatwave days sharply accelerate (2010); The 2020-2023 'triple-dip' La Niña. The Climate History panel on this page lists 35 sourced events and pattern shifts relevant to New Caledonia, the earliest from 1912 - 1 about New Caledonia itself and the rest global context such as volcanic eruptions and El Niño events. Each entry carries its own sources and can be searched, filtered to local events or by category, and sorted by date; scrolling the list moves a cursor across the chart above so you can see where each event falls in the record.
Where does the Climate History list for New Caledonia come from, and how is it checked?
It is a hand-reviewed register, not an automatic feed. Every entry is sourced, and each one records how it was verified - against this site's own data series, against a peer-reviewed paper, or against the public record of the event. 17 of the 35 entries here are written specifically about New Caledonia, usually quoting its own ranking or measured figures. The rest give global or national context shared with wider pages. Where a figure is narrower than it first appears, or a famous claim does not hold locally, the entry says so.