Mozambique Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Maputo, Matola, Beira, Nampula, and Chimoio
Summary
Mozambique recorded its 3rd warmest May to July season in 87 years of observational records, part of a sustained period of winter heat across southern Africa. The country is navigating this elevated warmth alongside a moderate El Niño forecast to peak at Very Strong in Sep-Nov, raising urgent humanitarian warnings over severe drought risks for the upcoming agricultural cycle, with elevated temperatures expected to persist through late winter.
This month in numbers
The primary story lies in the three-month season spanning May to July 2026, which recorded an average temperature of 21.83°C. That sits 1.4°C above the 1961-1990 baseline, making it the 3rd warmest May to July period on record, trailing only the record set in 2024. For July 2026, average temperatures reached 20.64°C, which is 1.1°C warmer than typical and ranks as the 5th warmest on record for the month. This continues a long-term warming trend of +0.99°C for Mozambique, where 2025 finished as the 7th warmest year on record at 24.36°C.
What changed
Mozambique's warmth aligns with broader global patterns, as global land temperatures for May to July 2026 ranked as the 2nd warmest on record at 1.5°C above baseline. The single month of July 2026 globally marked the 3rd warmest such period in 87 years. While Mozambique's rolling 12-month temperature anomaly sits at +0.91°C, local weather conditions have already tested community resilience following significant floods earlier in the year, leaving agricultural systems and food supplies vulnerable ahead of the next seasonal shift.
What’s driving change?
The primary driver behind Mozambique's shifting climate patterns is the ongoing influence of ENSO in the tropical Pacific. The current climate state shows a moderate El Niño with an anomaly of +0.98°C according to NOAA's Relative Niño Index, tracked live at ENSO. In southern Africa, El Niño historically triggers warmer and drier conditions during the main summer rainy season with roughly 70 percent historical reliability. On a broader scale, , accelerating surface temperature increases across inland provinces while disrupting traditional seasonal cycles.
Looking ahead
Seasonal forecasts indicate a 93 percent probability that El Niño will peak as a Very Strong event in Sep-Nov, pointing to a high risk of below-average rainfall and heightened drought conditions across central and southern Mozambique during the upcoming 2026-2027 rainy season.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Mozambique
Köppen Aw · TropicalMozambique has a tropical climate (Köppen Aw: Tropical savanna (dry winter)), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. November is typically the warmest month, averaging 27.0°C, while July is the coldest at 20.4°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1008mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Mozambique
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Mozambique
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Mozambique
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Mozambique
Latest month is provisional and may be revised by the data provider in the next update cycle.
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Mozambique
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm/cold + wet/dryKöppen Aw · TropicalMozambique has both a clear warm/cold cycle (±3.3°C) and a wet/dry cycle (20× wet:dry ratio). Both sides of the annual rhythm are shown below.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Jan (+32 mm, +14%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Mozambique
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Mozambique changing?
Mozambique is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Mozambique?
Mozambique has a tropical climate (Köppen Aw: Tropical savanna (dry winter)), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. November is typically the warmest month, averaging 27.0°C, while July is the coldest at 20.4°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1008mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Mozambique come from?
Climate data for Mozambique comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Mozambique climate data cover?
The Mozambique climate profile covers Maputo, Matola, Beira, Nampula and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Mozambique
How often is the Mozambique climate update refreshed?
The Mozambique climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Mozambique climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Mozambique climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.