Mongolia Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Ulaanbaatar, Erdenet, Darkhan, Choibalsan, and Mörön
Summary
Mongolia experienced exceptional midsummer heat as temperatures climbed 3.1°C above historical averages, creating conditions that triggered extreme heatwave warnings exceeding 40°C across the southern Gobi. The country logged its 8th warmest July in 87 years of weather records, placing it among the top 20 thermal anomalies recorded globally this month. Late summer weather across Central Asia is expected to remain warmer than normal in the coming weeks.
This month in numbers
The average temperature across Mongolia reached 21.26°C, marking a 3.1°C departure from the 1961–1990 baseline and registering as the 8th warmest July since records began in 1940. On a global scale, worldwide land temperatures averaged 15.8°C (+1.6°C anomaly), securing the 3rd warmest July on record. Mongolia stood out internationally as well, placing 18th among 232 tracked regions for the largest single-month temperature anomaly.
What changed
Looking at the broader season, the May–July 2026 average temperature rose to 16.48°C, which is 1.4°C above the long-term norm and ranks as the 17th warmest May–July period on record. Globally, land temperatures over the same 3-month stretch averaged 14.34°C (+1.5°C anomaly), marking the 2nd warmest May–July period ever recorded. Mongolia continues its clear long-term trajectory, with an overall warming trend of +1.57°C over historical baselines and 2025 standing as the 5th warmest year on record at 2.24°C.
What’s driving change?
Mongolia is landlocked and situated at high latitude, making it particularly vulnerable to and , where desiccated soils lose the ability to cool through evaporation during hot weather. While localized heat caused significant regional stress, Mongolia did not experience large-scale disaster declarations on the level of the 19 wildfires tracked in neighbouring Russia on our live map at Extreme Weather tracker.
Looking ahead
Seasonal climate outlooks indicate that temperatures across Mongolia are likely to remain above normal through late summer and into autumn.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Mongolia
Köppen BSk · AridMongolia has a arid climate (Köppen BSk: Cold steppe), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 20.3°C, while January is the coldest at -18.4°C. Annual precipitation averages around 205mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Mongolia
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Mongolia
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Mongolia
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Mongolia
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Mongolia
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm/cold + wet/dryKöppen BSk · AridMongolia has both a clear warm/cold cycle (±19.0°C) and a wet/dry cycle (24× wet:dry ratio). Both sides of the annual rhythm are shown below.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Jul (+10 mm, +21%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Mongolia
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Mongolia changing?
Mongolia is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Mongolia?
Mongolia has a arid climate (Köppen BSk: Cold steppe), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 20.3°C, while January is the coldest at -18.4°C. Annual precipitation averages around 205mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Mongolia come from?
Climate data for Mongolia comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Mongolia climate data cover?
The Mongolia climate profile covers Ulaanbaatar, Erdenet, Darkhan, Choibalsan and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Mongolia
How often is the Mongolia climate update refreshed?
The Mongolia climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Mongolia climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Mongolia climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.