Mali Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Bamako, Sikasso, Mopti, Koulikoro, and Kayes
Summary
Mali recorded its 3rd warmest July on record as unseasonably high heat persisted across the country. The elevated temperatures across the West African Sahel coincide with broader global land heat and a moderate El Niño forecast to peak at Very Strong in Sep-Nov, as tracked at ENSO. Long-term atmospheric warming continues to amplify regional temperatures across West Africa, with above-average heat expected to persist into autumn.
This month in numbers
July 2026 mean temperature reached 33.64°C, which sits 1.8°C above the 1961-1990 historical baseline. This makes it Mali's 3rd warmest July in 87 years of records, falling just short of the all-time record set in 2023 (33.84°C). The elevated heat contributed to a globally warm period, with global land temperatures also ranking 3rd highest for July at 1.6°C above baseline.
What changed
The three-month period from May to July 2026 averaged 34.4°C, standing 1.9°C above normal. This was Mali's 3rd warmest May to July period on record, trailing only the extreme heat of 2024. Globally, land temperatures over the same three months reached their 2nd highest level on record, demonstrating how Mali's persistent heat fits into a broader planetary pattern of sustained warming.
What’s driving change?
Regional heat in the Sahel is heavily influenced by , where desiccated ground can no longer cool the surface through evaporation, allowing heat to accumulate rapidly in the lower atmosphere. Furthermore, during the West African wet season can delay rainfall and prolong oppressive daytime conditions. On a global scale, the active moderate El Niño, detailed on our tracker at ENSO, typically nudges Sahelian temperatures upward, though historical teleconnections in this zone show moderate variability.
Looking ahead
Seasonal climate models indicate that above-average temperatures are likely to persist across West Africa through late summer and into autumn as El Niño reaches its predicted peak strength.
Sources:
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Mali
Köppen BWh · AridMali has a arid climate (Köppen BWh: Hot desert), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. June is typically the warmest month, averaging 34.5°C, while January is the coldest at 21.5°C. Annual precipitation averages around 372mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Mali
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Mali
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Mali
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Mali
Latest month is provisional and may be revised by the data provider in the next update cycle.
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Mali
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm/cold + wet/dryKöppen BWh · AridMali has both a clear warm/cold cycle (±6.5°C) and a wet/dry cycle (34× wet:dry ratio). Both sides of the annual rhythm are shown below.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Aug (+17 mm, +16%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Mali
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Mali changing?
Mali is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Mali?
Mali has a arid climate (Köppen BWh: Hot desert), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. June is typically the warmest month, averaging 34.5°C, while January is the coldest at 21.5°C. Annual precipitation averages around 372mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Mali come from?
Climate data for Mali comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Mali climate data cover?
The Mali climate profile covers Bamako, Sikasso, Mopti, Koulikoro and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Mali
How often is the Mali climate update refreshed?
The Mali climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Mali climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Mali climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.