Madagascar Climate
Top 5 Cities: Antananarivo, Toamasina, Antsirabe, Fianarantsoa, and Mahajanga
This month in numbers
Madagascar experienced its warmest April on record, with an average temperature of 24.8°C, marking an anomaly of +2.0°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. This makes April 2026 the 1st warmest April in 86 years of records. The three-month period from February to April 2026 was also exceptionally warm, ranking as the 2nd warmest on record with an average temperature of 24.76°C, an anomaly of +1.4°C.
What changed
The persistent warmth in Madagascar contrasts with the global picture, where April 2026 ranked as the 2nd warmest globally for land temperatures, with an anomaly of +1.1°C. The country's recent warmth is part of a longer-term trend, with 2025 being the warmest year on record for Madagascar, at 23.41°C. Madagascar is currently experiencing severe drought conditions, particularly in its southern regions, which have been ongoing since late 2025. This drought represents 100% of the drought events logged for Madagascar over the past 12 months, indicating an unusual concentration.
What’s driving change?
The current warming trend and erratic weather patterns in Madagascar are significantly influenced by ENSO, with the region experiencing the lingering effects of El Niño, which typically brings drier conditions to southern Madagascar and increased rainfall to the north and east. While the current NOAA ONI 3-month (February-April 2026) indicates Neutral conditions with an anomaly of +0.11°C, the impacts of the preceding El Niño have been severe, contributing to intense dry spells in the south and floods in the east earlier in the year. A positive was also observed during the 2023/24 cropping season, which may have moderated some of the typical El Niño-driven dry conditions in parts of Madagascar by contributing to increased rainfall in eastern Africa and parts of Madagascar. However, El Niño still exerted a strong influence, leading to erratic weather patterns with alternating wet and dry spells across the region. Madagascar has also been severely impacted by successive tropical cyclones, including Fytia and Gezani in February 2026, which caused widespread flooding, displacement, and damage to infrastructure, particularly in the eastern and northern parts of the country. These events have exacerbated food insecurity and malnutrition, especially in the Grand Sud and cyclone-affected eastern areas. More information on active extreme weather events can be found at Extreme Weather tracker and the evolving ENSO phase at ENSO tracker.
Looking ahead
The NOAA CPC forecast indicates a 61% chance of El Niño developing by May-July 2026, increasing to 79% by June-August 2026 and 87% by July-September 2026, suggesting a likely return to El Niño conditions in the coming months.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Madagascar
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Madagascar changing?
Madagascar is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Madagascar come from?
Climate data for Madagascar comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Madagascar climate data cover?
The Madagascar climate profile covers Antananarivo, Toamasina, Antsirabe, Fianarantsoa and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Madagascar
How often is the Madagascar climate update refreshed?
The Madagascar climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.