Madagascar Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Antananarivo, Toamasina, Antsirabe, Fianarantsoa, and Mahajanga
Summary
Madagascar experienced its 4th warmest July on record as unseasonable heat tightened its grip across the island, compounding an ongoing drought that continues to strain agricultural communities in the south. Average temperatures reached 19.78°C, extending a notable sequence of elevated warmth across the region. Relief remains distant, with above-average temperatures expected to linger over the coming months.
This month in numbers
July 2026 registered an average temperature of 19.78°C, which is 0.9°C above the 1961-1990 baseline and ranks as the 4th warmest on record for the month in 87 years of data. The broader May-July period was equally striking, recording a mean temperature of 20.83°C. That anomaly of +1.1°C makes it the 5th warmest May-July season on record for the island nation. Globally, land temperatures for July 2026 ran 1.6°C above baseline, ranking as the 3rd warmest for the month worldwide.
What changed
The warm mid-year period aligns with a long-term warming trend of +1.07°C compared to the 1961-1990 baseline. Last year was the 4th warmest year on record for Madagascar with a mean temperature of 23.13°C, trailing only slightly behind the record set in 2024. While Madagascar placed 202nd out of 232 regions globally for its single-month anomaly in July, the persistent warmth across recent months continues to exacerbate water deficits following a historically dry May.
What’s driving change?
A combination of and has helped sustain higher-than-normal land temperatures across the island. When rainfall fails, sparse soil moisture prevents normal evaporative cooling, which allows heat to build up rapidly over land. All of Madagascar's 1 drought this year has happened in the past month, with live tracking for this event available at Extreme Weather tracker.
Looking ahead
Seasonal forecasts indicate that elevated temperatures and dry conditions are likely to continue across the region over the next 1-3 months.
Sources:
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Madagascar
Köppen Aw · TropicalMadagascar has a tropical climate (Köppen Aw: Tropical savanna (dry winter)), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. December is typically the warmest month, averaging 25.2°C, while July is the coldest at 19.5°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1399mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Madagascar
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Madagascar
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Madagascar
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Madagascar
Latest month is provisional and may be revised by the data provider in the next update cycle.
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Madagascar
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm/cold + wet/dryKöppen Aw · TropicalMadagascar has both a clear warm/cold cycle (±2.5°C) and a wet/dry cycle (9× wet:dry ratio). Both sides of the annual rhythm are shown below.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Feb (-48 mm, -17%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Madagascar
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Madagascar changing?
Madagascar is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Madagascar?
Madagascar has a tropical climate (Köppen Aw: Tropical savanna (dry winter)), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. December is typically the warmest month, averaging 25.2°C, while July is the coldest at 19.5°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1399mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Madagascar come from?
Climate data for Madagascar comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Madagascar climate data cover?
The Madagascar climate profile covers Antananarivo, Toamasina, Antsirabe, Fianarantsoa and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Madagascar
How often is the Madagascar climate update refreshed?
The Madagascar climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Madagascar climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Madagascar climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.