Kenya Climate – June 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu, Nakuru, and Eldoret
This month in numbers
Kenya experienced its 5th warmest June on record, with an average temperature of 25.16°C, marking an anomaly of +1.4°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. Globally, June 2026 was the 3rd warmest June for land temperatures, with an anomaly of +1°C.
What changed
The April–June 2026 period saw Kenya record its 7th warmest such season, with an average temperature of 25.6°C, an anomaly of +1.3°C. This continues a trend of warmer-than-average conditions, with 2025 being the warmest year on record for Kenya at 26.03°C. The country's long-term warming trend stands at +1.23°C compared to the 1961–1990 baseline. Kenya's 1-month anomaly for June was 0.13°C cooler than the Africa group average, which recorded a +1.58°C anomaly.
What’s driving change?
The current climate patterns are significantly influenced by a weak El Niño, with a +0.98°C anomaly in the NOAA ONI 3-month (AMJ 2026) index. The forecast indicates a 100% probability of El Niño persisting through the end of 2026, with a strong likelihood of it developing into a moderate-to-strong event. Historically, El Niño events are associated with wetter conditions and increased flood risk in East Africa, particularly during the October–December short-rains season. The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has also noted that the (), currently neutral, could turn positive from July onwards, which, in combination with El Niño, could further amplify rainfall during the short-rains period. Abnormally dry conditions have been worsening in the interior of East Africa, including western Kenya, over the past several weeks, with persistent hot conditions across a large swath of the region.
Looking ahead
The Kenya Meteorological Department forecasts that while June to August 2026 will be largely dry for most parts of Kenya, with near-average to below-average rainfall in western Kenya, the enhanced rainfall typically associated with El Niño is expected to arrive during the October–December short-rains season, raising concerns about potential flooding and disruptions.
Sources:
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Kenya
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (rainfall: World Bank CCKP / CRU TS 4.08). Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Kenya – Monthly Temperature – All Years
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (rainfall: World Bank CCKP / CRU TS 4.08). Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Records – Kenya
Our World in Data / NOAA - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Wet / dry seasonsKöppen Aw · TropicalKenya doesn't have a warm/cold cycle - its monthly temperature range is only 2.6°C across the year - but it does have a strong wet/dry cycle (the wettest month gets 6× as much rain as the driest). So we track how the wet season has shifted instead.
Monthly rainfall climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Nov (+36 mm, +37%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (rainfall: World Bank CCKP / CRU TS 4.08). Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Rainfall & Precipitation
Rainfall & Rain Days – Totals
Headline: anomaly vs the 1961–1990 mean. Small figure: the actual value. Rank: position in the full record (1st = highest ever). Record: highest (or lowest) value on record with its year.
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
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Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Kenya
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Kenya changing?
Kenya is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Kenya come from?
Climate data for Kenya comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Kenya climate data cover?
The Kenya climate profile covers Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu, Nakuru and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Kenya
How often is the Kenya climate update refreshed?
The Kenya climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.