Kazakhstan Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Almaty, Astana, Shymkent, Aktobe, and Karaganda
Summary
Kazakhstan has endured an intensely hot mid-summer, recording its 2nd warmest July in 87 years of records. High pressure trapped blistering air across the Central Asian steppes, driving city temperatures past 40°C, warping asphalt roads, and triggering widespread health warnings. The intense heat arrived alongside severe moisture deficits that threaten water storage and crop yields across southern and western farming districts, with dry conditions expected to persist through late summer.
This month in numbers
July 2026 delivered an average temperature of 26.22°C, which sits 2.5°C above the 1961-1990 baseline. That made it the 2nd warmest month of its name in 87 years of records since 1940, trailing only the all-time record of 26.95°C set that year. Globally, land temperatures reached 15.8°C for the period, ranking as the 3rd warmest July on record.
What changed
The extreme mid-summer heat reflects a broader seasonal surge across Central Asia. Over the May-July 2026 period, Kazakhstan registered an average temperature of 22.7°C, which is 2.3°C above average and ranks as the 2nd warmest such three-month stretch on record, narrowly behind the 22.89°C benchmark set in 2021. Globally, May-July land temperatures were also the 2nd highest ever recorded. This sustained warmth follows a record-breaking full year in 2025, when Kazakhstan reached a historic average temperature of 8.95°C amid a long-term warming trend of +1.77°C. Over the past twelve months, Kazakhstan ranks 16th out of 232 global regions tracked for temperature anomalies, placing it among the fastest-warming areas on Earth.
What’s driving change?
Warming in Central Asia is heavily shaped by the principle that , leaving continental interiors far removed from marine cooling. As persistent high-pressure systems lock hot air masses over the Kazakh steppe, allow heatwaves to stall for extended durations. This heat rapidly bakes out remaining soil moisture, triggering that converts solar energy into direct air heat rather than evaporation. All of Kazakhstan's 1 drought this year has happened in the past month, intensifying pressure on pasturelands and regional reservoirs. An ongoing regional drought is tracked on our live map at Extreme Weather tracker.
Looking ahead
Seasonal forecasts indicate that elevated temperatures and atmospheric drought risks are likely to persist across major agricultural districts through late summer and into early autumn.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Kazakhstan
Köppen BSk · AridKazakhstan has a arid climate (Köppen BSk: Cold steppe), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 24.9°C, while January is the coldest at -9.6°C. Annual precipitation averages around 268mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Kazakhstan
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Kazakhstan
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Kazakhstan
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Kazakhstan
Latest month is provisional and may be revised by the data provider in the next update cycle.
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Kazakhstan
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen BSk · AridHow spring and autumn have shifted in Kazakhstan. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (6.0°C, from 1940–1969); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 36.2°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Feb (+3.6°C).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Kazakhstan
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Kazakhstan changing?
Kazakhstan is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Kazakhstan?
Kazakhstan has a arid climate (Köppen BSk: Cold steppe), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 24.9°C, while January is the coldest at -9.6°C. Annual precipitation averages around 268mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Where does the climate data for Kazakhstan come from?
Climate data for Kazakhstan comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Kazakhstan climate data cover?
The Kazakhstan climate profile covers Almaty, Astana, Shymkent, Aktobe and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Kazakhstan
How often is the Kazakhstan climate update refreshed?
The Kazakhstan climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Kazakhstan climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Kazakhstan climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.