Indonesia Climate – June 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Jakarta, Surabaya, Bandung, Medan, and Semarang
This month in numbers
Indonesia experienced its 8th warmest June on record, with an average temperature of 25.45°C, an anomaly of +1.1°C compared to the 1961–1990 baseline. Globally, June 2026 was the 3rd warmest June on record for land temperatures, with an anomaly of +1°C. The April–June 2026 period in Indonesia also ranked as the 11th warmest on record, with an average temperature of 25.63°C, an anomaly of +1.1°C.
What changed
Indonesia's recent warmth is part of a broader trend, with the country's average temperature for the latest full year (2025) reaching 26.01°C, making it the warmest year on record. The long-term trend shows a significant warming of +1.25°C compared to the 1961–1990 baseline. While Indonesia's June anomaly was +1.1°C, the overall Asia group experienced a higher average anomaly of +1.57°C for the month, placing Indonesia cooler than its group average.
What’s driving change?
The primary driver behind Indonesia's current warming and increasingly dry conditions is a weak El Niño, which is forecast to persist and strengthen in the coming months. El Niño typically brings warmer and drier conditions to Maritime Southeast Asia, a teleconnection that has historically led to severe drought and increased risk of peatland and forest fires in Indonesia. The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has noted an expansion of dry regions across Indonesia, particularly in Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, North Maluku, and Papua, with rainfall tending to be below normal. This is further exacerbated by a positive (), which, in combination with El Niño, is expected to lead to prolonged dry conditions and a high probability of very low rainfall between June and October 2026. Indonesia has also experienced recent volcanic activity, with a lava collapse at Merapi Volcano on June 30, 2026, and ongoing eruptions at Semeru Volcano. Additionally, Tropical Cyclone Bavi threatened eastern Indonesia with strong winds and high waves in early July, having developed into a tropical cyclone on July 2, 2026. More information on ENSO can be found at ENSO.
Looking ahead
El Niño is favored to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-27, with a 100% probability of El Niño conditions continuing through October–December 2026, suggesting a continuation of warmer and drier conditions for Indonesia in the coming months.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Indonesia
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (rainfall: World Bank CCKP / CRU TS 4.08). Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Indonesia – Monthly Temperature – All Years
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (rainfall: World Bank CCKP / CRU TS 4.08). Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Records – Indonesia
Our World in Data / NOAA - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Weakly seasonalKöppen Af · TropicalIndonesia is weakly seasonal - temperature barely changes across the year (0.6°C range) and rainfall is fairly even. The clearest climate signal here is overall warming: monthly temperature has risen in every month.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Jan (+1.7°C).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (rainfall: World Bank CCKP / CRU TS 4.08). Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Rainfall & Precipitation
Rainfall & Rain Days – Totals
Headline: anomaly vs the 1961–1990 mean. Small figure: the actual value. Rank: position in the full record (1st = highest ever). Record: highest (or lowest) value on record with its year.
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Indonesia
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Indonesia changing?
Indonesia is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Indonesia come from?
Climate data for Indonesia comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Indonesia climate data cover?
The Indonesia climate profile covers Jakarta, Surabaya, Bandung, Medan and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Indonesia
How often is the Indonesia climate update refreshed?
The Indonesia climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.