Ethiopia Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Addis Ababa, Dire Dawa, Mekelle, Adama, and Gondar
Summary
Ethiopia experienced its hottest July on record, capping an unprecedented three-month stretch of extreme heat that worsened drought conditions across critical farming regions. The record temperatures coincided with severe disruption to the vital Kiremt rainy season, triggering UN drought warnings across 114 districts affecting over nine million people. A moderate El Niño forecast to peak at Very Strong in Oct-Dec is amplifying heat and disrupting monsoon patterns, with heavier rains and flood risks anticipated later in the year.
This month in numbers
July 2026 registered an average temperature of 24.48°C, standing 2.3°C above the 1961–1990 baseline to rank 1st of 87 years on record. This broke all historical temperature records for the month since data collection began in 1940. Globally, land temperatures for the period ranked 3rd highest on record at 15.8°C, while Ethiopia ran 0.55°C warmer than the African continental average.
What changed
The extreme July heat follows a remarkably hot start to the summer, with the May–July 2026 period averaging 24.84°C. At 2.0°C above the baseline, this 3-month stretch also ranked 1st out of 87 years on record. The sustained heat continues Ethiopia's steep warming trajectory, where temperatures have risen by 1.35°C over the long term. This comes after 2025 recorded an average of 24.1°C to rank as the 3rd warmest full year on record, closely following the record-setting year of 2024.
What’s driving change?
The ongoing heat and rainfall deficits are primarily driven by associated with the current ENSO phase. A moderate El Niño in the tropical Pacific, tracked at ENSO, typically suppresses Ethiopia's crucial June–September Kiremt rains across northern and central highlands. As precipitation fails and ground moisture evaporates, kicks in, preventing natural evaporative cooling and allowing temperatures to spike far above seasonal norms. Although drought conditions triggered anticipatory humanitarian warnings, no acute flood or storm clusters were recorded locally on our live map, unlike the 26 wildfires tracked in Angola at Extreme Weather tracker.
Looking ahead
Seasonal models indicate that El Niño is 81% likely to reach Very Strong intensity between October and December, which historically shifts East African weather toward heavier short-season rainfall and an elevated risk of late-year flooding.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Ethiopia
Köppen Aw · TropicalEthiopia has a tropical climate (Köppen Aw: Tropical savanna (dry winter)), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. March is typically the warmest month, averaging 25.7°C, while December is the coldest at 22.9°C. Annual precipitation averages around 893mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Ethiopia
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Ethiopia
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Ethiopia
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Ethiopia
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Ethiopia
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Wet / dry seasonsKöppen Aw · TropicalEthiopia doesn't have a warm/cold cycle - its monthly temperature range is only 2.4°C across the year - but it does have a strong wet/dry cycle (the wettest month gets 12× as much rain as the driest). So we track how the wet season has shifted instead.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Aug (-20 mm, -13%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Climate Systems
Loading ENSO tracker…
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Ethiopia
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Ethiopia changing?
Ethiopia is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Ethiopia?
Ethiopia has a tropical climate (Köppen Aw: Tropical savanna (dry winter)), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. March is typically the warmest month, averaging 25.7°C, while December is the coldest at 22.9°C. Annual precipitation averages around 893mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Ethiopia come from?
Climate data for Ethiopia comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Ethiopia climate data cover?
The Ethiopia climate profile covers Addis Ababa, Dire Dawa, Mekelle, Adama and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Ethiopia
How often is the Ethiopia climate update refreshed?
The Ethiopia climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Ethiopia climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Ethiopia climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.