Eswatini Climate
This month in numbers
Eswatini experienced a significantly warmer March 2026, with an average temperature of 23.04°C, marking an anomaly of +1°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. This ranks as the 11th warmest March in 86 years of records. Globally, March 2026 was the 2nd warmest March on record for land temperatures, with an anomaly of +1.2°C. The three-month period from January to March 2026 also saw Eswatini record its 7th warmest start to the year, with an average temperature of 23.62°C, an anomaly of +0.9°C.
What changed
The seasonal trend for Eswatini from January to March 2026 indicates a continued warming pattern, with temperatures ranking among the top 10 warmest on record. This aligns with a broader global picture where global land temperatures for the same period were the 2nd warmest on record. Eswatini's 1-month anomaly for March placed it 194th out of 234 regions, and its 3-month anomaly ranked 201st, suggesting that while the country is experiencing warmer conditions, other regions globally are seeing even more pronounced temperature increases. Notably, 8 of the top 10 warmest 1-month anomalies globally were concentrated in US states, indicating a striking regional warming pattern there.
What’s driving change?
The warming trend in Eswatini is influenced by the broader global climate change, which is leading to higher average temperatures and an increased frequency of extreme weather events. The current ENSO state is Neutral, with a weekly Niño 3.4 SST anomaly of +0.7°C as of April 22, 2026. However, forecasts suggest a likely transition to El Niño conditions from May-July 2026 onwards, with probabilities reaching 87% by July-September 2026. Historically, El Niño years in Eswatini are prone to drought. In early 2026, several Southern African countries, including Eswatini, experienced significantly higher rainfall than normal, leading to flooding and damage to infrastructure. Dry concerns have also expanded across Eswatini following a dry spell in February. The country has been actively reviewing and tightening its National Drought Plan to fortify against intensifying climate shocks.
Looking ahead
Forecasters suggest a strong likelihood of El Niño conditions developing in the coming months, which could bring drier conditions to Eswatini.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Eswatini
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Eswatini changing?
Eswatini is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Eswatini come from?
Climate data for Eswatini comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Eswatini climate data cover?
Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Eswatini Eswatini climate profile with temperature anomalies, rainfall (CRU TS), warm/wet-season shift analysis, CO₂ emissions (Our World in Data) and electricity generation mix — all vs the 1961–1990 baseline..
How often is the Eswatini climate update refreshed?
The Eswatini climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.