Eswatini Climate – July 2026 Update
Summary
Eswatini experienced a strikingly mild winter period, capped by a May–July season that ranked as the 4th warmest on record. While July itself was warm, registering 1.1°C above baseline, the broader three-month spell reflected sustained warmth across Southern Africa, with developing Pacific ocean patterns pointing towards further elevated temperatures and heightened drought risks in the coming months.
This month in numbers
July 2026 posted an average temperature of 15.54°C, which sits 1.1°C above the historic baseline and ranks as the 11th warmest on record for the month in 87 years of measurements. The broader May–July season delivered a sharper anomaly, averaging 16.79°C. At 1.6°C above the baseline, this three-month window became the 4th warmest May–July on record for Eswatini.
What changed
The elevated winter temperatures in Eswatini align with a broader global pattern, as the May–July 2026 period was the 2nd warmest such three-month window on record worldwide, while July alone ranked 3rd globally. Eswatini has experienced a long-term warming trend of +0.69°C vs the 1961–1990 baseline. The preceding full year of 2025 averaged 19.91°C, making it the 11th warmest year recorded in the country, behind the all-time high of 20.61°C set during 2015.
What’s driving change?
The persistent warmth across Eswatini is consistent with fundamental global warming drivers, including the principle that regions. As the Southern Hemisphere winter closes, atmospheric and ocean dynamics are being further altered by ENSO phase transitions in the tropical Pacific, where developing El Niño conditions tend to suppress regional rainfall and exacerbate across Southern Africa.
Looking ahead
Official seasonal outlooks indicate that strengthening El Niño conditions across the Pacific Ocean are likely to maintain elevated temperatures and raise the risk of drought across Eswatini in the coming months.
Sources:
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Eswatini
Köppen Cwa · TemperateEswatini has a temperate climate (Köppen Cwa: Humid subtropical (dry winter)), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. February is typically the warmest month, averaging 23.3°C, while July is the coldest at 15.4°C. Annual precipitation averages around 761mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Eswatini
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Eswatini
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Eswatini
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Eswatini
Latest month is provisional and may be revised by the data provider in the next update cycle.
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Eswatini
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm/cold + wet/dryKöppen Cwa · TemperateEswatini has both a clear warm/cold cycle (±4.0°C) and a wet/dry cycle (20× wet:dry ratio). Both sides of the annual rhythm are shown below.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Jan (-59 mm, -34%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Eswatini
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Eswatini changing?
Eswatini is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Eswatini?
Eswatini has a temperate climate (Köppen Cwa: Humid subtropical (dry winter)), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. February is typically the warmest month, averaging 23.3°C, while July is the coldest at 15.4°C. Annual precipitation averages around 761mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Eswatini come from?
Climate data for Eswatini comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Eswatini climate data cover?
Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Eswatini Eswatini climate profile with temperature anomalies, precipitation (GPCC), warm/wet-season shift analysis, CO₂ emissions (Our World in Data) and electricity generation mix — all vs the 1961–1990 baseline..
How often is the Eswatini climate update refreshed?
The Eswatini climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Eswatini climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Eswatini climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.