Estonia Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Tallinn, Tartu, Narva, Pärnu, and Kohtla-Järve
Summary
Estonia experienced a warm summer period, with July temperatures coming in moderately above historical norms. While Northern Europe avoided the intense heatwaves sweltering southern parts of the continent, Estonia's summer still tracked above average, capped off by a May-July season that ranked among the warmest on record. Warm conditions are expected to persist across the region in the coming weeks.
This month in numbers
Estonia recorded an average temperature of 17.45°C in July 2026, which is +0.9°C above the 1961-1990 baseline. This made it a warm month, ranking as the 38th warmest July in an 87-year observational record dating back to 1940. While well below the all-time July record of 21.93°C set in 2010, the month continued an unbroken stretch of above-average monthly temperatures across the country since early spring.
What changed
Looking at the broader summer season, the May to July period averaged 15.17°C, standing +1.3°C above baseline and ranking as Estonia's 13th warmest May-July on record. Land temperatures worldwide reached historic levels during this period. Global land temperatures recorded their 3rd warmest July on record (+1.6°C anomaly), while the May-July season ranked as the 2nd warmest globally (+1.5°C anomaly). Long-term climate data highlights this persistent local trend, with Estonia's climate having warmed by +2.04°C relative to baseline, and 2025 finishing as the country's 3rd warmest year on record at 7.71°C.
What’s driving change?
Estonia's warming trajectory is heavily shaped by , which causes high northern latitude regions to heat faster than the global average as sea ice and snow cover retreat. Additionally, winter and spring temperatures in the Baltic region are strongly influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation, where positive pressure phases draw mild maritime air into northern Europe. Seasonal shifts are also bringing earlier spring warming and longer summer conditions, reinforcing the region's long-term temperature rise.
Looking ahead
Seasonal climate forecasts suggest that temperatures across Estonia and the Baltic region are likely to remain above seasonal averages through late summer and into autumn.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Estonia
Köppen Dfb · ContinentalEstonia has a continental climate (Köppen Dfb: Humid continental - warm summer), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 18.0°C, while January is the coldest at -2.8°C. Annual precipitation averages around 465mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Estonia
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Estonia
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Estonia
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Estonia
Latest month is provisional and may be revised by the data provider in the next update cycle.
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Estonia
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm/cold + wet/dryKöppen Dfb · ContinentalEstonia has both a clear warm/cold cycle (±12.0°C) and a wet/dry cycle (3× wet:dry ratio). Both sides of the annual rhythm are shown below.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Sep (-19 mm, -33%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Estonia
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Estonia changing?
Estonia is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Estonia?
Estonia has a continental climate (Köppen Dfb: Humid continental - warm summer), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 18.0°C, while January is the coldest at -2.8°C. Annual precipitation averages around 465mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Estonia come from?
Climate data for Estonia comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Estonia climate data cover?
The Estonia climate profile covers Tallinn, Tartu, Narva, Pärnu and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Estonia
How often is the Estonia climate update refreshed?
The Estonia climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Estonia climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Estonia climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.