Cuba Climate
Top 5 Cities: Havana, Santiago de Cuba, Camagüey, Holguín, and Guantánamo
This month in numbers
Cuba experienced a significantly warmer-than-average start to the year, with the February–April 2026 period ranking as the 14th warmest in 86 years of records, at 24.79°C, a full 1°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. April 2026 itself was also warmer than average, at 25.39°C, an anomaly of +0.6°C. Globally, April 2026 was the 2nd warmest April for land temperatures on record, at 14.96°C, an anomaly of +1.1°C. The global land temperature for the February–April 2026 period also ranked as the 2nd warmest on record, at 14.13°C, an anomaly of +1.2°C.
What changed
Cuba's warmer trend for the February–April period aligns with a broader pattern of rising temperatures. The country's average temperature for 2025 was 26.19°C, making it the 2nd warmest year on record since 1941. This continues a long-term warming trend of +0.95°C compared to the 1961–1990 baseline. Cuba's latest 1-month temperature anomaly places it 208th out of 234 regions globally, while its 3-month anomaly ranks it 192nd. The broader Latin America and Caribbean region has also been experiencing well-above-average temperatures, rising sea levels, and an increase in extreme weather events.
What’s driving change?
The warming trend in Cuba is part of a global pattern, with land warming faster than the ocean. The current ENSO state is Neutral, with an anomaly of +0.11°C for February-April 2026. However, forecasts indicate a high probability of an El Niño developing in the coming months, with an 82% chance for May-July and a 96% chance for July-September. El Niño typically brings drier conditions to the Caribbean and Atlantic basin and can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. Cuba has also been grappling with significant drought conditions, with 62% of the territory affected by drought as of March 2026 and national water reserves at their lowest since 2015. This dry soil amplification contributes to higher temperatures. Between January and April 2026, Cuba experienced 111 wildfires, damaging over 3,174 hectares, with Pinar del Río being the most affected province. This is an unusually high number of fires for the region and season, exacerbated by severe drought conditions.
Looking ahead
The forecast for the coming months suggests that May 2026 will be a very warm month across Cuba, with temperatures above historical averages, and the summer is expected to bring more intense heat than usual, with nights offering little thermal relief.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Cuba
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Cuba changing?
Cuba is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Cuba come from?
Climate data for Cuba comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Cuba climate data cover?
The Cuba climate profile covers Havana, Santiago de Cuba, Camagüey, Holguín and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Cuba
How often is the Cuba climate update refreshed?
The Cuba climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.