Cuba Climate
Top 5 Cities: Havana, Santiago de Cuba, Camagüey, Holguín, and Guantánamo
This month in numbers
Cuba experienced its 14th warmest February–April on record, with an average temperature of 24.79°C, a notable 1°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. April 2026 alone was the 33rd warmest April on record, with an anomaly of +0.6°C. Globally, April 2026 was the 2nd warmest April for land temperatures on record, with an anomaly of +1.1°C, while the February–April period also ranked as the 2nd warmest globally for land temperatures, at +1.2°C above average.
What changed
The past three months have seen Cuba continue its warming trend, with the February–April period being significantly warmer than average. This aligns with the broader global picture, as global land temperatures for both April and the February–April quarter ranked as the 2nd warmest on record. Cuba's 3-month anomaly of +1.02°C places it 183rd out of 234 regions in cross-region rankings, indicating that while warmer, it is not among the most extreme anomalies globally.
What’s driving change?
The warming trend in Cuba is influenced by the broader global temperature increases. The current ENSO state is Neutral, with an anomaly of +0.11°C for February–April 2026. However, forecasts indicate a strong likelihood of El Niño developing from May–July onwards, with probabilities reaching 87% by July–September. El Niño typically brings drier conditions to the Caribbean and Atlantic basin during the summer and autumn months, and also tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity.
Cuba experienced several notable weather events in the past few months. In early February, an unusually deep southward plunge of the brought historic cold temperatures, with one station recording 0°C (32°F) for the first time on record on February 3, 2026, leading to frost on vegetation in some areas. This cold snap was accompanied by several cold fronts that caused coastal flooding and strong swells along Havana's northern coast, necessitating evacuations in low-lying areas. Additionally, the country has been grappling with an increased risk of wildfires, with over 130 hectares affected in western Cuba by early February 2026, and a significant fire in Pinar del Río impacting over 400 hectares in April. These fires are exacerbated by drought conditions and human negligence. There have been 723 high-confidence fire alerts reported so far in 2026, which is considered normal compared to previous years. The ongoing energy crisis and fuel shortages across the island are also impacting the capacity to respond to such events and affecting essential services.
Looking ahead
Seasonal forecasts suggest that Cuba can expect a hotter than usual summer with above-average maximum temperatures, although precipitation levels are expected to be close to historical norms, indicating a rainy summer.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Cuba
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Cuba changing?
Cuba is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Cuba come from?
Climate data for Cuba comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Cuba climate data cover?
The Cuba climate profile covers Havana, Santiago de Cuba, Camagüey, Holguín and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Cuba
How often is the Cuba climate update refreshed?
The Cuba climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.