Cuba Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Havana, Santiago de Cuba, Camagüey, Holguín, and Guantánamo
Summary
Cuba experienced severe mid-summer heat during a scorching period that reached an average temperature of 28.67°C, making July 2026 the island's 4th warmest on record. This capped a May–July period that ranked 3rd warmest overall. Extreme temperatures pushed local weather stations near 38°C during the height of summer, severely straining the national power grid and compounding human thermal stress. The warmth aligns with a moderate El Niño forecast to peak at Very Strong in Sep–Nov, with above-average heat expected to persist into late autumn.
This month in numbers
July 2026 stood out as a remarkably hot period for Cuba, recording an average temperature of 28.67°C. That represents a +1.4°C anomaly above the 1961–1990 baseline, making it the 4th warmest July in records stretching back 87 years. Over the May–July season, temperatures averaged 27.92°C (+1.4°C above baseline), ranking as the 3rd warmest 3-month stretch on record, trailing only the historic highs of 1998. Looking at broader trends, Cuba's long-term warming trajectory stands at +0.94°C relative to baseline, with 2025 finishing as the 5th warmest full year on record at 26.1°C, just behind the record 26.3°C set in 2023.
What changed
The recent 3-month stretch reflects a broader tropical warming trend that has elevated both day and night temperatures across the Caribbean basin. Globally, land temperatures for May–July ran 1.5°C above baseline, placing the 3-month period as the 2nd warmest worldwide. While Cuba did not reach the extreme anomaly levels seen in western Europe, local land surface heating remained consistently high. Rainfall during late spring and early summer stayed close to typical seasonal amounts, though high ambient temperatures accelerated evaporation and heightened thermal discomfort.
What’s driving change?
The persistent warmth across Cuba is primarily linked to broad tropical atmospheric patterns alongside background warming, where surfaces. Additionally, the tropical Pacific is currently in a moderate El Niño phase, which can be tracked at ENSO. Historically, El Niño has a modest (~60% reliability) association with drier conditions and increased vertical wind shear that suppresses Atlantic storm activity. While its direct impact on Caribbean surface temperatures is variable, atmospheric stability and tropical ocean heating have combined to sustain severe summer heat.
Looking ahead
Seasonal climate outlooks indicate that temperatures across Cuba are likely to remain above historical averages over the next 1–3 months, with precipitation expected to run close to typical wet-season norms as El Niño intensifies.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Cuba
Köppen Aw · TropicalCuba has a tropical climate (Köppen Aw: Tropical savanna (dry winter)), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. August is typically the warmest month, averaging 28.2°C, while January is the coldest at 23.3°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1396mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Cuba
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Cuba
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Cuba
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Cuba
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Cuba
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Wet / dry seasonsKöppen Aw · TropicalCuba doesn't have a warm/cold cycle - its monthly temperature range is only 4.8°C across the year - but it does have a strong wet/dry cycle (the wettest month gets 5× as much rain as the driest). So we track how the wet season has shifted instead.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Oct (-39 mm, -20%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Cuba
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Cuba changing?
Cuba is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Cuba?
Cuba has a tropical climate (Köppen Aw: Tropical savanna (dry winter)), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. August is typically the warmest month, averaging 28.2°C, while January is the coldest at 23.3°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1396mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Cuba come from?
Climate data for Cuba comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Cuba climate data cover?
The Cuba climate profile covers Havana, Santiago de Cuba, Camagüey, Holguín and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Cuba
How often is the Cuba climate update refreshed?
The Cuba climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Cuba climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Cuba climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.