China Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Hong Kong, Macau, and Macao
Summary
China registered its 2nd warmest July on record as an unrelenting summer heatwave pushed national average temperatures 2°C above the long-term baseline, trailing only the record set in 2025. The intense thermal buildup coincided with severe that unleashed destructive rainstorms and widespread flooding across multiple provinces. The country's extreme weather is unfolding against the backdrop of a moderate El Niño in the tropical Pacific, which is intensifying and forecast with an 81% probability to peak at Very Strong in Oct-Dec, with volatile weather risks expected to persist through late summer into autumn.
This month in numbers
China recorded a national average temperature of 21.32°C during the month, making it the 2nd warmest July in records dating back to 1940. That monthly reading sits 2°C above the 1961-1990 baseline, just shy of the all-time July record of 21.45°C set a year earlier. Over the May-July season, temperatures averaged 17.86°C, marking the 4th warmest such three-month spell on record. Globally, land temperatures in July were the 3rd warmest ever observed at 15.8°C (an anomaly of +1.6°C), while the May-July period ranked 2nd. On an annual scale, 2025 was China's 2nd warmest year on record at 8.11°C, maintaining a long-term warming trend of +1.54°C vs baseline.
What changed
The three-month May-July temperature anomaly reached +1.4°C above historical norms, confirming a sustained warming pattern through the summer. Across the global comparison of 232 countries and territories, China ranked 70th for its single-month anomaly in July. Within the regional Asian group, China ran 0.47°C warmer than the continental average anomaly of +1.57°C. The elevated temperatures across the country coincided with heavy convective rainfall, contrasting dry heatwaves in parts of the north with severe inundation in southern and central river basins.
What’s driving change?
China's accelerated summer warming is heavily influenced by the principle that , which amplifies heat retention over large landmasses. Atmospheric instability triggered by further intensified the contrasting pattern of extreme heat and torrential rainstorms. Severe deluge conditions generated significant hydrological strain, with all of China's 1 flood this year happening in the past month, tracked on our live map at Extreme Weather tracker. Oceanically, a moderate El Niño remains active in the equatorial Pacific, with updates available at ENSO.
Looking ahead
Seasonal dynamic models indicate an 81% probability that the current El Niño will intensify into a Very Strong event peaking in Oct-Dec, maintaining a high risk of abnormal precipitation patterns and elevated temperatures across China over the coming months.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – China
Köppen Dwb · ContinentalChina has a continental climate (Köppen Dwb: Humid continental - dry winter, warm summer), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 20.7°C, while January is the coldest at -7.0°C. Annual precipitation averages around 741mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – China
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – China
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – China
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – China
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – China
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm/cold + wet/dryKöppen Dwb · ContinentalChina has both a clear warm/cold cycle (±14.0°C) and a wet/dry cycle (10× wet:dry ratio). Both sides of the annual rhythm are shown below.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Jul (+19 mm, +16%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for China
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in China changing?
China is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in China?
China has a continental climate (Köppen Dwb: Humid continental - dry winter, warm summer), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 20.7°C, while January is the coldest at -7.0°C. Annual precipitation averages around 741mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for China come from?
Climate data for China comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the China climate data cover?
The China climate profile covers Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and surrounding areas. The largest emitter and largest renewables builder
How often is the China climate update refreshed?
The China climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the China climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the China climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.