Chad Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: N'Djamena, Moundou, Sarh, Abéché, and Kélo
Summary
Chad experienced its hottest July since records began in 1940, with blistering conditions spreading across the Sahel as part of a global surge in extreme weather. The relentless heat delivered an average monthly temperature of 31.68°C, topping historical charts and compounding acute food insecurity and water stress in vulnerable communities. At the same time, a moderate El Niño continues to intensify in the tropical Pacific, with high temperatures expected to persist through late summer and autumn.
This month in numbers
The average temperature in July 2026 reached 31.68°C, standing 2.6°C above the 1961-1990 baseline and ranking 1st out of 87 years on record for the month. Seasonal heat was equally relentless, with the 3-month May-Jul 2026 period averaging 32.38°C (+2.1°C anomaly) to rank 2nd highest in history, behind only the record set in 2024. This local spike mirrored wider trends, as global land temperatures recorded their 3rd warmest July and 2nd warmest 3-month stretch on record. For longer-term context, Chad's overall warming trend stands at +1.48°C, with 2025 having registered as the country's 3rd warmest full year on record at an average of 28.01°C.
What changed
The 3-month period from May through July registered an average anomaly of +2.1°C, consolidating a streak of extreme heat across north-central Africa. Globally, Chad placed 34th out of 232 regions for its single-month anomaly (+2.64°C in our cross-region index) and 50th for its 3-month anomaly. On the moisture front, May 2026 delivered only 10.9mm of rainfall (a deficit of 9.79mm compared to normal), making it the 123rd wettest in 136 years of rainfall data. Drier ground conditions earlier in the season have amplified surface heating across the semi-arid landscape.
What’s driving change?
Chad's severe warming is primarily driven by , where parched terrain cannot cool through evaporation, converting solar energy directly into intense surface air heat. Because , inland continental regions across the African Sahel experience magnified temperature rises relative to the global average. Meanwhile, a moderate El Niño event in the tropical Pacific - tracked live at ENSO - is currently active and intensifying. While ENSO teleconnections across the Sahel carry a modest historical reliability around 50%, warm Pacific conditions often coincide with a delayed or suppressed West African monsoon, exacerbating dry and hot conditions across the central African interior.
Looking ahead
Seasonal models project a 93% probability that the current event will peak as a Very Strong El Niño between September and November 2026, pointing toward continued above-average heat and erratic rainfall across the Sahel over the coming months.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Chad
Köppen BWh · AridChad has a arid climate (Köppen BWh: Hot desert), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. May is typically the warmest month, averaging 32.8°C, while January is the coldest at 20.9°C. Annual precipitation averages around 406mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Chad
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Chad
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Chad
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Chad
Latest month is provisional and may be revised by the data provider in the next update cycle.
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Chad
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm/cold + wet/dryKöppen BWh · AridChad has both a clear warm/cold cycle (±5.3°C) and a wet/dry cycle (22× wet:dry ratio). Both sides of the annual rhythm are shown below.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Sep (+36 mm, +89%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Chad
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Chad changing?
Chad is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Chad?
Chad has a arid climate (Köppen BWh: Hot desert), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. May is typically the warmest month, averaging 32.8°C, while January is the coldest at 20.9°C. Annual precipitation averages around 406mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Chad come from?
Climate data for Chad comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Chad climate data cover?
The Chad climate profile covers N'Djamena, Moundou, Sarh, Abéché and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Chad
How often is the Chad climate update refreshed?
The Chad climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Chad climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Chad climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.