Bulgaria Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Sofia, Plovdiv, Varna, Burgas, and Ruse
Summary
Bulgaria experienced a distinctly warm July as temperatures across the country averaged 22.07°C, marking an anomaly of 1.3°C above the long-term baseline. Coming on the heels of an even hotter June, the summer month sat well above historical norms, reflecting broader warming trends across Southern Europe where dry conditions and high pressure fuelled localised wildfires and pushed river levels along the Danube towards record lows, with seasonable conditions expected across the region through late summer.
This month in numbers
July 2026 delivered an average temperature of 22.07°C in Bulgaria, standing 1.3°C above the 1961-1990 baseline and ranking as the 27th warmest in 87 years of record-keeping. The broader May-July period averaged 19.42°C, which was 1.2°C above baseline and ranked as the country's 23rd warmest such 3-month stretch. While Bulgaria avoided the record-shattering heatwaves seen further west, global land temperatures reached 15.8°C, making the recent period the 3rd warmest July on record globally with a 1.6°C anomaly. Furthermore, the May-July global land average ranked 2nd highest in recorded history at 1.5°C above baseline.
What changed
Bulgaria's summer temperatures shifted upward significantly following a brief spring pause. After near-average conditions in April and May, June jumped to 2.3°C above normal before easing slightly to a 1.3°C anomaly. This recent summer warmth aligns with Bulgaria's steep long-term warming trend of 1.73°C above the 1961-1990 baseline. Recent years demonstrate this trajectory clearly, as 2025 finished as the country's 4th warmest year on record at an average of 12.47°C, trailing only slightly behind the all-time high of 13.28°C set in 2024.
What’s driving change?
The warmth across the Balkan region is heavily influenced by the principle that surfaces, where continental landmasses heat up significantly quicker than surrounding seas. In addition, persistent atmospheric high pressure promoted , as parched ground loses its ability to cool through evaporation and amplifies summer heatwaves. This dry regime contributed to heightened wildfire activity across Bulgarian forests and drove river levels along the Danube to historic lows during midsummer.
Looking ahead
Extended seasonal forecasts suggest near to above-average temperatures will persist across Southern Europe through late summer and into early autumn, maintaining elevated fire risks across the region.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Bulgaria
Köppen Cfa · TemperateBulgaria has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfa: Humid subtropical), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 23.1°C, while January is the coldest at 1.2°C. Annual precipitation averages around 643mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Bulgaria
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Bulgaria
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Bulgaria
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Bulgaria
Latest month is an early figure - not yet confirmed by every source in this page's round-up.
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Bulgaria
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Dfb · ContinentalHow spring and autumn have shifted in Bulgaria. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (10.5°C, from 1940–1969); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 23.5°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Jan (+3.2°C). The warmest month has shifted from Aug to Jul.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Bulgaria
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Bulgaria changing?
Bulgaria is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Bulgaria?
Bulgaria has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfa: Humid subtropical), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 23.1°C, while January is the coldest at 1.2°C. Annual precipitation averages around 643mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Where does the climate data for Bulgaria come from?
Climate data for Bulgaria comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Bulgaria climate data cover?
The Bulgaria climate profile covers Sofia, Plovdiv, Varna, Burgas and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Bulgaria
How often is the Bulgaria climate update refreshed?
The Bulgaria climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Bulgaria climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Bulgaria climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.