Belize Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Belize City, San Ignacio, Belmopan, Orange Walk, and Dangriga
Summary
Belize has experienced its 4th warmest May to July on record, driven by three consecutive months running 1.6°C warmer than the 1961 to 1990 baseline. July itself registered as the country's 6th warmest on record for the month, exacerbating agricultural drought watches across northern and central districts, with warmer-than-usual heat expected to persist into late autumn.
This month in numbers
Belize recorded an average temperature of 27.41°C in July 2026, placing 1.6°C above the 1961 to 1990 baseline to rank as the 6th warmest on record for the month across 87 years of data. The headline story stems from the broader May to July season, which averaged 27.92°C to rank as the 4th warmest May to July on record. On the global scale, land temperatures for May to July reached 2nd highest in historical records with a 1.5°C anomaly, while July globally ranked 3rd highest with a 1.6°C anomaly.
What changed
The sustained tropical heat marks a distinct shift from late winter, when February dipped 0.6°C below average before March aligned with long-term norms. Temperatures rose quickly through April (+0.6°C anomaly) before May, June, and July each recorded identical +1.6°C anomalies. In the long-term picture, Belize's warming trend stands at +1.48°C above baseline, following 2025's mean temperature of 26.03°C (its 7th warmest year on record) and the record high of 26.6°C set in 2024.
What’s driving change?
The elevated heat and reduced rainfall reflect broader tropical atmospheric patterns where ENSO phase swings and seasonal shifts disrupt typical rainfall distribution across Central America. On a regional level, mechanisms mean inland areas experience stronger temperature spikes than surrounding Caribbean waters.
Looking ahead
Seasonal forecasts from the National Meteorological Service of Belize indicate that temperatures are expected to remain warmer than usual through late autumn, accompanied by normal to below-normal rainfall across most districts.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Belize
Köppen Am · TropicalBelize has a tropical climate (Köppen Am: Tropical monsoon), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. May is typically the warmest month, averaging 28.2°C, while January is the coldest at 23.5°C. Annual precipitation averages around 2057mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Belize
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Belize
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Belize
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Belize
Latest month is provisional and may be revised by the data provider in the next update cycle.
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Belize
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Wet / dry seasonsKöppen Am · TropicalBelize doesn't have a warm/cold cycle - its monthly temperature range is only 4.3°C across the year - but it does have a strong wet/dry cycle (the wettest month gets 5× as much rain as the driest). So we track how the wet season has shifted instead.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Nov (+81 mm, +43%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Belize
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Belize changing?
Belize is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Belize?
Belize has a tropical climate (Köppen Am: Tropical monsoon), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. May is typically the warmest month, averaging 28.2°C, while January is the coldest at 23.5°C. Annual precipitation averages around 2057mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Belize come from?
Climate data for Belize comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Belize climate data cover?
The Belize climate profile covers Belize City, San Ignacio, Belmopan, Orange Walk and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Belize
How often is the Belize climate update refreshed?
The Belize climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Belize climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Belize climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.