Bahamas Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Nassau, Freeport, West End, Cooper's Town, and Marsh Harbour
Summary
The Bahamas has endured its hottest May-July stretch on record, capping off three months of intense summer heat with national meteorological authorities issuing island-wide heat advisories. July itself fell just 0.01°C short of setting an all-time monthly high, with oppressive humidity pushing heat index values past dangerous thresholds across New Providence, Grand Bahama, and Andros. This record-breaking seasonal streak mirrors broader tropical warming, with the heat expected to persist through late summer while developing Pacific conditions suppress early tropical cyclone activity.
This month in numbers
July 2026 delivered an average temperature of 28.94°C across the island chain, standing 1.5°C above the 1961-1990 baseline. This marks the 2nd warmest July in 87 years of records, barely trailing the all-time peak of 28.95°C set in 2023. More remarkably, the three-month period from May to July averaged 27.94°C, marking a +1.5°C anomaly that stands as the 1st warmest such stretch ever recorded in the country since records began in 1940.
What changed
This intense warmth represents an acceleration of a broader regional pattern. Following a brief cool spell in February, consecutive monthly anomalies above 1.0°C in March, May, June, and July have pushed temperatures well past historic norms. The local trend aligns with global conditions, where global land temperatures for the three months ending in July ranked 2nd warmest on record. Nationally, the archipelago continues its long-term trajectory of +0.92°C above baseline, building on 2025 which ranked as the 7th warmest year on record at 25.81°C.
What’s driving change?
The relentless heat across the islands has been largely driven by persistent high-pressure atmospheric conditions combined with the influence of ENSO as equatorial Pacific conditions evolve. Atmospheric Saharan dust layers helped trap heat and elevated real-feel temperatures across major islands, reinforcing the regional impact of seasonal shifts. While local communities faced hazardous heat advisories, the island chain avoided the major disaster clusters seen in other regions globally.
Looking ahead
Long-range seasonal forecasts indicate that developing El Niño conditions across the Pacific are expected to maintain elevated regional temperatures through autumn while generating wind shear that suppresses Atlantic tropical storm development.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Bahamas
Köppen Aw · TropicalBahamas has a tropical climate (Köppen Aw: Tropical savanna (dry winter)), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. August is typically the warmest month, averaging 28.5°C, while January is the coldest at 23.1°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1226mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Bahamas
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Bahamas
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Bahamas
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Bahamas
Latest month is provisional and may be revised by the data provider in the next update cycle.
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Bahamas
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm/cold + wet/dryKöppen Aw · TropicalBahamas has both a clear warm/cold cycle (±2.7°C) and a wet/dry cycle (6× wet:dry ratio). Both sides of the annual rhythm are shown below.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Aug (+45 mm, +66%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Bahamas
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Bahamas changing?
Bahamas is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Bahamas?
Bahamas has a tropical climate (Köppen Aw: Tropical savanna (dry winter)), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. August is typically the warmest month, averaging 28.5°C, while January is the coldest at 23.1°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1226mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Bahamas come from?
Climate data for Bahamas comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Bahamas climate data cover?
The Bahamas climate profile covers Nassau, Freeport, West End, Cooper's Town and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Bahamas
How often is the Bahamas climate update refreshed?
The Bahamas climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Bahamas climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Bahamas climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.