Missouri Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Kansas City, St. Louis, Springfield, Columbia, and Independence
Summary
Missouri experienced a warmer and noticeably drier mid-summer, as July temperatures reached 26.22°C, registering 0.9°C above the long-term baseline to mark the state's 16th warmest such period in 77 years of records. The dry weather spurred a sharp uptick in local vegetation fires, with all of Missouri's 3 wildfires this year occurring in the past month, with above-average warmth expected to persist into autumn.
This month in numbers
During the month, the state recorded an average temperature of 26.22°C, sitting 0.9°C above the 1961-1990 baseline to stand as the 16th warmest July since records began in 1950. Daytime maximum temperatures averaged 31.72°C, matching historical averages, while rainfall dropped to 76.2 mm, leaving the region 18.7 mm drier than normal. On a global scale, terrestrial land temperatures during the month reached 15.8°C, which sits 1.6°C above baseline as the 3rd highest July land temperature in 87 years of records.
What changed
Across the May-to-July season, Missouri posted an average temperature of 22.54°C, which was 0.6°C above baseline and ranked as the 23rd warmest such period on record. Total seasonal precipitation measured 354.59 mm, sitting 33.1 mm above normal as wet conditions earlier in late spring compensated for the drier mid-summer finish. Globally, land temperatures for the same three-month window reached 14.34°C, registering 1.5°C above baseline to rank as the 2nd warmest May-July period on record, whereas the contiguous United States as a whole ran 1.5°C above average in July.
What’s driving change?
The transition toward drier soil conditions in mid-summer played a direct role in elevating local fire risk across the state. prevented ground moisture from evaporating and cooling the near-surface air, while steered rain-bearing weather systems north of the central plains. All of Missouri's 3 wildfires this year happened in the past month, and these active blazes across the state are tracked on our live map at Extreme Weather tracker.
Looking ahead
Official seasonal forecasts from NOAA indicate an elevated likelihood of above-normal temperatures and persistent dry conditions across the central United States into autumn.
Sources:
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – USUnited States
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance — US states & climate regions (tavg, pcp), plus GPCC (Snow, water-equivalent). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Missouri
Köppen Dfa · ContinentalMissouri has a continental climate (Köppen Dfa: Humid continental - hot summer), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 25.7°C, while January is the coldest at -0.4°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1082mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Missouri
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Heatwave Days – Missouri
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Missouri
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Monthly Temperature – Missouri
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Records – Missouri
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Dfa · ContinentalHow spring and autumn have shifted in Missouri. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (12.3°C, from 1950–1979); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 27.3°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Mar (+2.7°C).
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Missouri
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Statewide monthly temperature and precipitation (nClimDiv).
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Missouri changing?
Missouri is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Missouri?
Missouri has a continental climate (Köppen Dfa: Humid continental - hot summer), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 25.7°C, while January is the coldest at -0.4°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1082mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Where does the climate data for Missouri come from?
Climate data for Missouri comes from NOAA Climate at a Glance (temperature and precipitation), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Missouri climate data cover?
The Missouri climate profile covers Kansas City, St. Louis, Springfield, Columbia and surrounding areas. Missouri climate data from NOAA Climate at a Glance
How often is the Missouri climate update refreshed?
The Missouri climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Missouri climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Missouri climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.