Decarbonisation Models
batteries · heat pumps · EVs · renewables · cost per tonne CO₂
Adjust the sliders below to model different decarbonisation scenarios for the United Kingdom. All figures update live.
▸ Section 1 — Battery Storage
Home Battery
Installed Cost£450/kWh
Today ~£450 · plug-and-play target ~£200
Household Take-up10%
2.8m of 28.0m homes
ToU Coordination70%
30% self-optimising → 95% full VPP
Battery Size10 kWh
Grid Battery
Grid Capacity15 GW
Current: ~7 GW installed
Dispatch Efficiency85%
Capex per GW£0.18bn
MODEL · Grid savings = peaker displacement + infra deferral. Consumer = ToU at 22p/kWh × 1.2 cycles. CO₂ = fossil peaking at 400g/kWh.
How much residential peak demand can batteries cover?
Adjust Household Take-up and Grid Capacity sliders to see the effect
96%
covered
19.8 GW
Home batteries: 6.2 GW (31%)
Grid batteries: 12.8 GW (65%)
of 52 GW total peak (19.8 GW residential)Home Fleet Capacity
6.2 GW
2.8m homes enrolled
Grid Fleet Capacity
12.8 GW
15 GW × 85%
Financial Impact
Consumer Saving (home)
£1.9bn
Annual ToU arbitrage
Consumer Benefit (grid)
£1.3bn
Wholesale pass-through
Peaker displacement value (annual)
Home batt.
£3.1bn
Grid batt.
£6.4bn
Grid infrastructure deferral
Home batt.
£5.4bn
Grid batt.
£15.0bn
Cost vs Benefit
◈ Home Batteries
Capex (÷10yr)−£1.3bn
Consumer saving+£1.9bn
Grid saving+£8.5bn
Net annual+£9.1bn
capex annualised over 10yr
◈ Grid Batteries
Capex (÷20yr)−£135m
Consumer benefit+£1.3bn
Grid saving+£21.4bn
Net annual+£22.5bn
capex annualised over 20yr
Home fleet peaker equiv.
10.3 × 600 MW gas plants
Grid fleet peaker equiv.
21.3 × 600 MW gas plants
Section 2 — Decarbonisation: Home & Grid Scale
Heat Pump vs Gas Boiler · Home Scale
% Gas Homes Converted15%
3.5m of 23.0m gas homes
Grid Carbon Now (g/kWh)148g
Shared with EV panel · lower = cleaner grid
Grid Carbon 2035 Scenario50g
NESO target ~50g
Homes converted
3.5m
net cost £0/home
Total net capex
£0m
annualised over 15yr
CO₂ avoided (now)
6.32 Mt
1832kg/home/yr
CO₂ avoided (2035)
7.67 Mt
2224kg/home/yr
Annual bill saving
£2.0bn
£580/home/yr net
◈ Heat Pumps
Capex (÷15yr)−£0m
Bill saving+£2.0bn
Net annual+£2.0bn
Grid improvement dividend
Same hardware, improving savings yearly. 148g: 6.32 Mt → 50g (2035): 7.67 Mt — 21% more CO₂ avoided, zero extra cost.
Renewables vs Fossil · Grid Scale
Type
New Capacity20 GW
Fossil Displacement80%
% actually displacing fossil vs curtailment
Annual generation
52.6 TWh
CF 30%
Total capex
£34.0bn
£1.70bn/GW · 25yr
CO₂ avoided
17 kt
vs fossil 400g/kWh
Lifetime CO₂
420 kt
25yr total
Fossil opex saving
£800m
annual running costs avoided
◈ Renewables
Capex (÷25yr)−£1.4bn
Opex saving+£800m
Net annual£-560m
20 GW avoids 17 kt/yr — 8,009 cars equivalent. Lifetime: 420 kt.
Section 3 — Electric Vehicles
EV vs Petrol Car · Fleet Scale
% of New Car Sales → EV25%
450k EVs/yr · 1.8m total sales
Years of Adoption5yr
Fleet on road: ~2.3m EVs (max 12yr life)
Efficiency (km/kWh)6.0
Typical EV 5–7 km/kWh · grid carbon shared with HP panel
Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) enabled
Cost basis
CO₂ cost uses marginal premium over equivalent petrol car (£5,000 net after grants), not full vehicle price. This is the fairest basis — you were buying a car anyway.
EV fleet on road
2.3m
450k/yr new sales
Marginal capex
£2.3bn
£5,000 premium/car
Annual fuel saving
£2.7bn
£1,200/car/yr
Per vehicle · single car comparison
Petrol CO₂
2100kg/yr
EV CO₂ (now)
296kg/yr
Net saving (now)
1804kg/yr
Net saving (2035)
2000kg/yr
Fleet CO₂ (now)
4.06 Mt
1804kg/car/yr
Fleet CO₂ (2035)
4.50 Mt
2000kg/car/yr
CPT · now
£46/t
marginal cost basis
CPT · 2035
£42/t
as grid decarbonises
V2G Grid Contribution · disabled
Enable V2G to see the EV fleet acting as distributed grid storage. At 60 kWh per car, a V2G-enrolled EV fleet is the largest potential grid battery asset.
◈ EV Fleet (marginal cost)
Marginal capex (÷12yr)−£188m
Fuel saving+£2.7bn
Net annual (marginal)+£2.5bn
Section 4 — All Interventions CO₂ & Cost Comparison
All Interventions Comparedresponds live · marginal cost basis for EV
Annual CO₂ Avoided
Home Batteries2 kt
Grid Batteries7 kt
Heat Pumps (now)6.32 Mt
Heat Pumps (2035 grid)7.67 Mt
EV fleet (now)4.06 Mt
EV fleet (2035 grid)4.50 Mt
Renewables (onshore)17 kt
Cost per Tonne CO₂ · £ · lower = better
Home Batteries—/t
Grid Batteries—/t
Heat Pumps (now)—/t
Heat Pumps (2035 grid)—/t
EV fleet (now)£46/t
EV fleet (2035 grid)£42/t
Renewables (onshore)—/t
— = negligible CO₂ at current params · EV uses marginal cost (premium over petrol)
Most cost-effective: EV fleet (2035 grid) at £42/tonne — 1× cheaper than EV fleet (now) (£46/t).
Scale note
Battery CO₂ figures are most uncertain — they assume enabling fossil peaker displacement. Heat pump and EV figures rest on firmer empirical ground. Renewables CO₂ is most direct.High-level indicative model · all figures respond live · EV uses marginal cost over equivalent petrol car · sources: NREL ATB, BNEF, Ofgem, NESO FES, SMMT, DfT, Carbon Brief